Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 10 years (v1)
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
by AEMO
A collation of reports that we thought noting produced by the AEMO
What’s noted in the 2026 ESOO, about the looming closure of Yallourn Power Station?
It’s quite a topical question (that we’ve contributed to recently), so I thought I would have a look at what is noted within the ESOO about the looming closure of Yallourn.
*Why* the ‘switch-a-roo with the ESOO’?
Yesterday we wrote about ‘The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?’. Following a tip from a reader (thanks!) this article at least helps to explain *when and why* the switch came about.
The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?
This article is a first look inside the 2026 ESOO. It looks more at how the modelling is framed, and results presented - rather than the details of the modelling itself.
AEMO releases 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026
Breaking a run of a Thursday Release in late August over 3 consecutive preceding years, the AEMO released the 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026. Here's a first article, with links to news media coverage.
Revisiting the CIS-awarded project pipeline, ahead of the ESOO 2026
A year on from our 4-part series about the CIS, we take an updated look at the 89 projects awarded across the scheme's five NEM tenders — comparing what proponents have actually announced compared to the status AEMO assigns them for ESOO reliability modelling.
Reality is dawning … it would take a major miracle to reach 82% by 2030
In the past couple weeks (including at ACES 2026, but also elsewhere) it's seemed that the penny has dropped ... only by a miracle will we achieve 82% by 2030.
AEMO’s MT PASA run flags shortfalls forecast for VIC and SA (but the devil is in the details)
In anticipation of this month's release of the 2026 ESOO, a short article noting the forecast shortfalls flagged in this Tuesday's updated MT PASA modelling via MN144738 published at 14:52 (NEM time) on Tue 4th August 2026.
AEMO releases the 2026 ISP
It’s Thursday 25th June 2026 and, as it is required to do, the AEMO has released the 2026 iteration of the Integrated System Plan.
Confronting the stochastic reality of the National Electricity Market to avoid planning blind spots
The reasonable response is not to model the world as simpler than it is, but to confront its variability head-on: to treat stochastic inputs as stochastic, to plan for the distribution rather than its midpoint, and to build the margin of safety that resilience demands.
AEMO Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO): Decreases in forecast gas shortfalls
An initial overview of the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) 2026 that has been released today.
How realistic are those wind capacity factor assumptions in the draft 2026 ISP?
In the draft 2026 ISP, the AEMO materially increased wind capacity factor assumptions for several renewable energy zones. In this article, we compare those assumptions against actual capacity and availability factors for wind units across the NEM in 2025.
AEMO releases the Q4 2025 Quarterly Energy Dynamics report
The AEMO have today released its Q4 2025 QED report, with related headlines in the media about the report focused on lower average wholesale prices and a milestone in which renewables and storage supplied more than half of the NEM’s energy for the first time.
AEMO releases draft of 2026 ISP
Today (Wednesday 10th December 2025) the AEMO has released the much-awaited* draft of the (upcoming 2026 iteration of the) Integrated System Plan .
AEMO releases ‘2025 Transition Plan for System Security’
On Monday 1st December 2025 (after it was flagged in some media articles) the AEMO released its 154-page '2025 Transition Plan for System Security'.
AFR headline ‘AEMO warns of NSW blackouts if Eraring closes in 2027’ attracts attention
I’ve been away for the past week and am not back at work yet, but seeing the headline ‘AEMO warns of NSW blackouts if Eraring closes in 2027’ by Angela MacDonald-Smith in the AFR on 1st Dec 2025 diverted my attention.
AEMO frequency monitoring report provides some details of frequency event (due to self-forecast glitch) on 19th August 2025
Adding to the list of articles we've collated about the frequency disturbance on Tuesday 19th August 2025, we're copying in what AEMO published in its 2025 Q3 monitoring report about the glitch.
AEMO publishes report: ‘Frequency Monitoring–2025 Q3’
On or before 13th November 2025, the AEMO published its ‘Frequency Monitoring – Quarter 3 2025’ report:
AEMO released its first (redacted) ‘Thermal Audit’ Report on Wednesday 5th November 2025
On Wed 5th November 2025 the AEMO has released its first ‘Thermal Audit’ (redacted) Report, which provides 'a review of the flexibility and capability of the thermal generation fleet'
AEMC communicates two items, relating to a Review of the Integrated System Plan (ISP)
Amongst the many emails that hit my inbox recently was an email from the AEMC that spoke to the ‘Package of ISP reform underway’ – and specifically these two arms.