The AEMO have today released their Quarterly Energy Dynamics (QED) report for Q4 2025, covering outcomes across the market for the quarter ending December 31st 2025.
The accompanying media release highlighted a drop in both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year average prices, as well as record volumes of generation for VRE and storage:
Wholesale electricity prices for the National Electricity Market (NEM) nearly halved in the December 2025 quarter, driven by record renewable generation supplying more than half of total energy needs for the first time.
AEMO’s latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report shows wholesale electricity prices averaged $50 per megawatt hour (MWh) across the NEM, a $39/MWh (-44%) reduction from Q4 2024 and a $37/MWh (-43%) decline from Q3 2025.
The quarter saw strong growth in renewable and storage output, with wind generation up 29%, grid scale solar up 15%, and battery discharge nearly tripling to an average of 268 megawatts (MW), supported by 3,796 MW of new battery capacity added since late 2024.
At the same time, coal-fired generation fell to an all-time quarterly low, down 4.6% year-on-year, while gas-fired generation dropped 27% to its lowest level since Q4 2000.
AEMO Executive General Manager Policy and Corporate Affairs, Violette Mouchaileh, said the quarter marked a significant milestone for Australia’s energy transition.
“This is a landmark moment for the NEM. For the first time, renewables and storage supplied more than half of the system’s energy needs for a full quarter,” Ms Mouchaileh said.
“It reflects years of sustained investment and demonstrates that more wind, solar and battery capacity in the system reduces reliance on higher cost coal and gas generation, placing sustained downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices,” she said.
Kerry Galloway from the AEMO will present an online webinar on the Q4 2025 QED, hosted in collaboration with the University of Melbourne, on the 11th February 2026 at 2:00pm (Melbourne time). Details about the webinar are here.
Media Coverage
The reports release drew broad attention across mainstream and energy-sector media, with headlines largely centred on the fall in wholesale prices and the VRE milestone. Below is a list of the related coverage we’ve seen so far today:
- Daniel Mercer from the ABC wrote “Australia hits power demand record as renewables pass 50pc milestone“
- Giles Parkinson from Renew Economy wrote “Landmark moment: Prices plunge as renewables supply half of grid, batteries surge and coal hits new low“
- Angela Macdonald-Smith from The Australian Financial Review wrote “Landmark moment: Record renewables drive down cost of power“
- Ev Foley from PV Magazine wrote “Rooftop solar hits all-time output high of 4,407 MW in Q4 2025: report“
- Charis Palmer from The Energy wrote “Wholesale prices down as NEM and WEM break records“
- Nick Toscano from The Age wrote “Landmark moment: Renewables’ record surge sends power prices tumbling“
- Colin Packham from The Australian wrote “Renewables supply the majority of Australia’s electricity needs for the first time and drive down prices“
Widespread acknowledgement that increased renewable electricity generation is driving down wholesale power costs. No mention of politicians agreeing with this. Hopefully the current quarter will continue to reflect the increased storage capacity, solar and wind generation. And if so, what effect will continuing wholesale power costs at lower levels have on retail power costs. Just noting that jumps in retail power costs due to removal of state and federal subsidies have contributed to recent increases in cost of living.
The customer focussed and missing part or this analysis is “what has happened to the average retail household electricity costs and bills?”
Has the average household electricity bill increased or decreased in the quarter? . What are the reasons for the changes?