Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 10 years (v1)
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
Headline Reports
What’s noted in the 2026 ESOO, about the looming closure of Yallourn Power Station?
It’s quite a topical question (that we’ve contributed to recently), so I thought I would have a look at what is noted within the ESOO about the looming closure of Yallourn.
*Why* the ‘switch-a-roo with the ESOO’?
Yesterday we wrote about ‘The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?’. Following a tip from a reader (thanks!) this article at least helps to explain *when and why* the switch came about.
The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?
This article is a first look inside the 2026 ESOO. It looks more at how the modelling is framed, and results presented - rather than the details of the modelling itself.
AEMO releases 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026
Breaking a run of a Thursday Release in late August over 3 consecutive preceding years, the AEMO released the 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026. Here's a first article, with links to news media coverage.
Revisiting the CIS-awarded project pipeline, ahead of the ESOO 2026
A year on from our 4-part series about the CIS, we take an updated look at the 89 projects awarded across the scheme's five NEM tenders — comparing what proponents have actually announced compared to the status AEMO assigns them for ESOO reliability modelling.
Reality is dawning … it would take a major miracle to reach 82% by 2030
In the past couple weeks (including at ACES 2026, but also elsewhere) it's seemed that the penny has dropped ... only by a miracle will we achieve 82% by 2030.
AEMO’s MT PASA run flags shortfalls forecast for VIC and SA (but the devil is in the details)
In anticipation of this month's release of the 2026 ESOO, a short article noting the forecast shortfalls flagged in this Tuesday's updated MT PASA modelling via MN144738 published at 14:52 (NEM time) on Tue 4th August 2026.
AEMO releases the 2026 ISP
It’s Thursday 25th June 2026 and, as it is required to do, the AEMO has released the 2026 iteration of the Integrated System Plan.
Confronting the stochastic reality of the National Electricity Market to avoid planning blind spots
The reasonable response is not to model the world as simpler than it is, but to confront its variability head-on: to treat stochastic inputs as stochastic, to plan for the distribution rather than its midpoint, and to build the margin of safety that resilience demands.
AEMO Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO): Decreases in forecast gas shortfalls
An initial overview of the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) 2026 that has been released today.
Aula Energy bought the Lightsource BP solar farm portfolio … so, what have they bought?
This article references two separate threads - the acquisition (by Aula Energy) of 5 x operational Solar Farm assets from Lightsource BP, and the slightly earlier release of the GSD2025.
How realistic are those wind capacity factor assumptions in the draft 2026 ISP?
In the draft 2026 ISP, the AEMO materially increased wind capacity factor assumptions for several renewable energy zones. In this article, we compare those assumptions against actual capacity and availability factors for wind units across the NEM in 2025.
The state-of-charge for 2025: The NEM’s battery fleet crosses the chasm
In this instalment of our annual review of the NEM’s expanding battery fleet, we draw on the GSD2025 to look at long-term trends in market revenue, high-price capture, the early returns of FPP, and network curtailment.
New FCAS resources dominate enabled levels in 2025
We find the trend for increasing enablement of the 'new' resources has only continued, that the new FCAS resources are the dominant providers of all FCAS services nowadays.
Yallourn Power Station no longer bidding FCAS services (as seen via GSD2025)
One of the things that jumped out to us with the GSD2025 was the confirmation that all four units at Yallourn Power Station continued the pattern of late 2024 in ceasing to offer any of the 10 x FCAS markets.
Who killed FCAS?
Alex Leemon looks at how FCAS bidding and enablement volumes have shifted over the past decade — drawing on New South Wales data — to unpack what’s been driving the post-2023 collapse in FCAS prices.
I’m speaking next week at the Australian Power Symposium 2026 … ‘insights into the Australian spot electricity market’
We’ve been asked to ‘present insights into the Australian spot electricity market’ at the ASX Power Symposium on Wednesday 18th February 2026.
AEMO releases the Q4 2025 Quarterly Energy Dynamics report
The AEMO have today released its Q4 2025 QED report, with related headlines in the media about the report focused on lower average wholesale prices and a milestone in which renewables and storage supplied more than half of the NEM’s energy for the first time.
Our Generator Statistical Digest 2025 has been released today, on Wednesday 28th January 2026
Today we’ve released the Generator Statistical Digest 2025 — the latest edition of our annual, unit-level reference report on generator performance across the NEM.