Yesterday we wrote about ‘The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?’. Following a tip from a reader (thanks!) this article at least helps to explain *when and why* the switch came about.
We thought it was worth separately collating these examples of how to answer the question ‘How many years of reference data are required to construct a robust model of the future?’.
A couple comments/conversations at today's Endgame seminar in Brisbane prompts me to publish this long-term review of aggregate battery operations across the NEM.
On slide from the Endgame seminar today in Brisbane focused on the recent 4-day wind lull in South Australia. Many points resonated, but I want to flag just two ...
No less of interest for me will be this Tuesday’s Endgame seminar in Brisbane, titled ‘Expanding the modeller’s toolkit’.
The reasonable response is not to model the world as simpler than it is, but to confront its variability head-on: to treat stochastic inputs as stochastic, to plan for the distribution rather than its midpoint, and to build the margin of safety that resilience demands.
In this guest-authored article by Endgame Economics, Oliver Nunn examines growing 'noise' in NEM spot prices — how increasingly frequent oscillations appear to have a structural, intraday pattern, what may be driving it, and why it matters for market behaviour and battery investment outcomes.
This article by Ryan Powell and Nadali Mahmoudi examines how major southern NSW transmission upgrades — particularly HumeLink — are expected to reshape network congestion, and what that means for the operation of Snowy 2.0 once it comes online.
This article by Endgame Analytics explains why average or median forecasts are becoming increasingly inadequate, using multi-year weather and supply stress testing to expose the true distribution of outcomes, risks, and reliability challenges in a high-renewables power system.
Paul Bandarian and David Leitch from ITK Services share modelling results for a post-coal NEM, arguing today’s electricity prices can be maintained if batteries become the dominant price-forming technology and solar is structurally supported.
Nadali Mahmoudi from EPEC Group presents a short case study to show why network-outage modelling is essential for understanding revenue opportunities, curtailment risk and long-term investment decisions.
Following my presentation at NEMdev 2025 (on 8th Oct 2025), here are some suggestions that the Nelson Review panel might consider - with respect to forecasting.
Returning for the second day of CEC QCES in the 'Long Duration Energy Storage' Oliver Nunn shared more insights from the Endgame modelling.
Flagging two charts that Rimu talked through to sum up some of the observations he made about some modelled results for some (unstated) year late in the next decade.
About 4 weeks ago the 2025 ESOO was released. In this article we highlight 3 x 2 different ways this might be viewed - and note some other dimensions not considered.
A short note about some comments made by Oliver Nunn during the 'Faster than Forecast' session at Queensland Clean Energy Summit on Mon 15th Sept 2025.
It was with interest that one of our team members noted David Osmond’s comment earlier today when he said 'June 12 was one of the most challenging days of the last 4 years ...'
Dan dives into the history of the NEM’s market cap and explores how high-end prices contribute to regional settlement costs and cap payouts.
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 3: "Defense against the dark arts"
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 2: "Operational dispatch modelling"