AEMO Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO): Decreases in forecast gas shortfalls

On Thursday 26th March 2026, the AEMO released its annual Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) for 2026:

Further documentation is available here on the AEMO website.

(A)  Gas demand is forecast to fall with supply forecast to increase

There are still times of peak demand that will need to be covered, “The 2026 GSOO forecasts gas shortfall risks during extreme peak day demand conditions from 2029 in Southern Australia, with a need for additional supply in most scenarios from 2030.”

Some key insights listed by the AEMO include

• Improved near term gas supply conditions, with risks of extreme peak day shortfalls in southern Australia now expected to emerge one year later than previously forecast.
• Stronger gas adequacy outcomes through to 2029, driven by increased peak day supply capability, new infrastructure investment and moderating demand.
• A continued decline in gas production from legacy southern fields, indicating the need for new production, storage and transportation investment from around 2030 under most weather conditions.
• Ongoing reductions in gas consumption as electrification increases, while gas powered generation continues to play a critical role during winter peak demand periods as coal generation retires.
• Clear interdependencies between gas and electricity markets as Australia’s energy system transitions.
  

It is worth noting the report does not take into account the current geopolitical events that have started up in the middle east recently.

(B)  Other early media coverage

Scanning of media coverage I saw these articles:

1. Renew Economy, Sophie Vorrath talks about the gas shortfall fears being pushed back
2. The Australians Colin Packham details that Eastern Australia’s gas shortage pushed out to 2030
3.  Bloomberg, Keira Wright details that the gas shortfall delayed to 2029
4. The Energy, Ben Potter looks at how electrification and batteries are easing the gas gap

 

will add more as they come through

(C) Social media responses

AEMO themselves are letting everyone know the report is out now with a useful one page explainer

 

Commenting on the GSOO Hamish McKenzie talks about the factors that have lead to the lowering in the shortfalls