AEMO’s MT PASA run flags shortfalls forecast for VIC and SA (but the devil is in the details)

It’s August now, which means that it’s ‘ESOO month’ and we await the release of the 2026 ESOO some Thursday in August…

… in the meantime (and in anticipation of the 2026 ESOO) it’ll be of interest to some that the latest weekly update on the MT PASA modelling published yesterday (Tuesday 4th August 2026) was accompanied by MN144738 published at 14:52 (NEM time) as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 04/08/2026 14:52:54

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Notice ID : 144738
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 04/08/2026
External Reference : RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 4 August 2026

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Reason :

The MTPASA result published on 4 August 2026 identifies annual unserved energy exceeds the Reliability Standard between:
— August 2027 – August 2028 in South Australia
— August 2027 – August 2028 in Victoria

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER) for the following region(s) and periods:
— July 2028 in South Australia
— July 2028 in Victoria
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

MTPASA considers transmission augmentations only once they near commissioning and applies participants submitted planned outages and weekly energy limits.

As a result, future transmission augmentations, including Project EnergyConnect Stage 2 and other planned network developments, are incorporated into MTPASA only as they approach commissioning. Once included, these augmentations are expected to improve the ability to share resources between regions, which may reduce forecast reliability risks.

MTPASA therefore may identify greater levels of reliability risk than identified in the Electricity Statement of Opportunities.

MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO’s website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines.

This notice supersedes Market Notice 144649 published on 28 July 2026.

Forecasting

AEMO

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END OF REPORT
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So let’s wait to see what the ESOO says…