AEMO releases 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026

Breaking a run of a Thursday Release in late August over 3 consecutive preceding years, the AEMO released the 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026.  Prior issues were as follows:

• In 2021, the AEMO released the ESOO 2021 (on Tuesday 31st August 2021) and also the ESOO 2021 Update (on 14th April 2022, in response to several significant developments after that time).
• In 2022, the AEMO released the ESOO 2022 (on Wednesday 31st August 2022) and also the ESOO 2022 Update (on 21st February 2023).
• For 2023, the AEMO released the ESOO 2023 (on Thursday 31st August 2023) and also the ESOO 2023 Update (on 21st May 2024).
• For 2024, the AEMO released the ESOO 2024 (on Thursday 29th August 2024) … but not a 2024 ESOO update.
• For 2025, the AEMO released the ESOO 2025 (on Thursday 21st August 2025) … but not a 2025 ESOO update.

Readers here can access the report, and accompanying materials, as follows:

With respect to this release of the ESOO, readers might like to note the following:

(A)  What AEMO notes about the report

There’s a Media Release titled ‘Reliability can be maintained with timely investment as demand grows’ – in which the AEMO notes:

‘AEMO Chief Executive Officer Daniel Westerman said the report shows the reliability outlook has improved, while reinforcing the need for continued investment as generation retires and electricity demand grows.

“The reliability outlook has improved, supported by record levels of new generation and storage, and a strong pipeline of projects expected over the next decade, Mr Westerman said.’

… and …

‘Over the next decade, around 15 GW of coal and gas generation is scheduled to retire, while electricity consumption is forecast to increase by more than 40 per cent as homes, businesses and industry electrify and data centre demand grows.

“The report finds a significant amount of new capacity is expected to be delivered between now and the early 2030s, helping to replace retiring generation and support growing electricity demand,” Mr Westerman said.

“Beyond 2030, the next wave of investment will be critical to maintaining reliability, he said.

Forecast reliability gaps are not forecasts of power outages. They are an early signal that continued investment or other action may be needed to maintain reliability beyond 2030.’

(B)  What we have noted on WattClarity®, about the ESOO

Here on WattClarity®:

1)  Prior to the release of the ESOO:

(a)  It’s useful to remind readers that it was over 5 years ago that we posed the question ‘Observation 8/22 from GenInsights21–what is the purpose of the ESOO (Electricity Statement of Opportunities)?’ (via GenInsights21 ), so it will be interesting to assess this question, to see how it grapples with the challenges of this split focus …  including the possible confusions:

i.  for the Planning Team inside the AEMO;

ii.  and also for the both:

>  first-hand readers (who’ll crack the ESOO themselves and read),

>  and the larger pool of second-hand readers (who’ll rely on media articles like those linked below to gain a sense of what the key messages are).

(b)  Related to the ESOO and using the Generator Information Page was Dan’s article ‘Revisiting the CIS-awarded project pipeline, ahead of the ESOO 2026’ a week ago exactly, on Tuesday 18th August 2026.

2)  Following the release of the ESOO we have posted:

(a)  This article, obviously;

(b)  and more to come…

(C)  News Media commentary about the ESOO 2026

So far today I have come across commentary in a range of places, including the following:

1)  In the AFR we have seen…

(a)  Not making the front page (indeed, one had to flip to page 6 in the print edition this morning) was Ryan Cropp and Angela MacDonald Smith writing ‘Data centre build and renewables delays put squeeze on power grid’…

i.  Interestingly this article makes the point, in the second paragraph:

‘A report by the Australian Energy Market Operator found that while there is enough new renewable energy under development to avoid power reliability problems until 2030, that forecast hinges on several projects that are likely to run late.’

ii.  So that’s a helpful distinction for the readers of the AFR.

(b)  But nothing else, at this point…

2)  In the Australian we have seen …

(a)  At the point this article was first published, Colin Packham is working on something with a title ‘NSW faces earlier electrification crunch then first forecast’…

(b)  So I expect there will be a longer article, at a more permanent URL, later in the day.

3)  In the Guardian we have seen …

(a)  Nothing at the time this article was first published (09:00 NEM time)

4)  In SMH and the Age we have seen …

(a)  Nothing at the time this article was first published (09:00 NEM time)

5)  In RenewEconomy we have seen …

(a)  Peter Hannam, a recent addition to the team, writes ‘New renewables and batteries improve grid reliability outlook, but more needs to get built on time, AEMO says’…

6)  In PV Magazine we have seen …

   (a)  Nothing at the time this article was first published (09:00 NEM time)

7)  In the ABC we have seen …

(a)  In an article that reads as if he’s been working on it for some time prior to the release of the ESOO, Daniel Mercer posted this morning  ‘Wind project ‘drought’ puts Australia’s green energy targets in doubt’…

i.  Indeed, we know this to be true

ii.  Amongst other external references, Daniel draws from the two articles published last week by our Dan Lee:

> firstly, ‘Revisiting the CIS-awarded project pipeline, ahead of the ESOO 2026’ on Tuesday 18th August 2026; and

> then with ‘How the CIS differs from state-based underwriting schemes, and what the industry has suggested about it so far’ the next day.

iii.  Daniel Mercer’s article is well worth reading, to read between the lines of what’s in the ESOO.

8)  In The Energy we have seen …

(a)  Ben Potter writes ‘AEMO’s high wire: Supply risks fall to 2030 but increase later’.

9)  In Michael West Media we have seen …

(a)  Nothing at the time this article was first published (09:00 NEM time)

As a reader here, if you come across any other useful commentary, feel free to add as a comment below.

(D)  Commentary about the ESOO 2026 from Industry Organisations

So far today I have come across commentary in a range of places, including the following:

1)  From the Energy Users Association of Australia (EUAA) …

(a)  We’ve not had time to look yet….

2)  From the Australian Energy Council (AEC) …

(a)  We’ve not had time to look yet….

3)  From the Clean Energy Council (CEC) …

(a)  We’ve not had time to look yet….

4)  From the Smart Energy Council (SEC) …

(a)  We’ve not had time to look yet….

5)  From the Energy Networks Association (ENA) …

(a)  We’ve not had time to look yet….

6)  From the Climate Council …

(a)  We’ve not had time to look yet….

(E)  Across the highpoints on Social Media

If we see anything (that we think is) particularly insightful on Social Media (and we have the time!) we’ll look to note it here:

1)  From the AEMO …

2)  One of the first thing we noticed was Tony Wood’s comment on LinkedIn here, which we copy in as follows:

‘The electricity market operator’s latest report on the east coast electricity market shows that the outlook for reliability over the next 3-4 years has improved with new investments in renewables and storage. But if we don’t see a sustained increase in investment and there are no new support policies, data centre growth and coal closure will bring much increased risks from the beginning of the 2030s.  This is not a call for panic but for sustained action.’