Over the past couple of years it’s seemed to me:

• That the odds have been progressively growing against reaching the legislated target of 82% renewables by 2030
• And that realisation is spreading across Market Participants and other stakeholders.

These headwinds were the subject of much discussion about various events through winter conference season 2026 to date:

• See, for instance, Observation 2 and 3 and 4 and 5 and 6 and 7 and 8 in this Conference Wrap Part 2;
• These discussions continued into ACES 2026.

A tipping point in realisation is close?

In the past couple weeks (in addition to ACES 2026) we’ve seen other reporting that we would not have thought possible a year ago:

1)  What reinforced, to me, that we might be at a tipping point in realisation was seeing David Leitch (sometimes guest author here, but much more often on RenewEconomy) write some considered thoughts on his ITK Research blog in the article ‘Replacing the CIS with a CfD’ last Thursday 30th July 2026:

(a)  I don’t think David was above to attend ACES 2026 (or at least we did not spot him there)

(b)  But this article touched on

i.  similar observations I made in the Conference Wrap pre-conference

ii.  and discussion in Sydney over two days

(c)  But, to be honest, I did not think I’d ever think to see David being as direct as he was, in noting:

‘It is abundantly clear that not many utility scale renewable projects are reaching FID (final investment decision). Only two years ago 80% renewables by 2030 seemed like a just about achievable target. Today we can confidently say it has no chance.’

(d)  For completeness, David’s throughs appeared the next day in RenewEconomy with the title ‘Labor’s flagship renewable energy scheme has not worked: It’s time to replace the CIS with a CFD’.

2)  But that’s not the only article in RenewEconomy noting that there’s real trouble in reaching 82% by 2030 … for instance this week on Tuesday 4th August 2026, Sophie Vorrath wrote ‘Australia will not hit 82 pct renewables by 2030, BNEF says, despite record solar and battery investment’.

(a)  again, seems surprising that we’d ever have seen a title like this on RenewEconomy:

(b)  although readers should not the caveat in the wording, highlighted above – and here:

‘Australia will struggle to reach its renewable energy target of 82 per cent by 2030, a new report has warned, if current investment and development pipeline challenges persist and if significant downgrades to wind energy forecasts are to be believed.’

Some still holding onto the belief/view

Understandably, some are still holding onto the view (at least in public) that it is achievable, even if very  challenging.   Worth highlighting two in particular …

Within the AEMO

Within the AEMO it appears that the official line is still that it is achievable (although inside the organisation, individuals might have significant doubts).  Let’s noted quickly about the two premier publications for 2026.

The 2026 ISP

We noted on 25th June that the ‘AEMO releases the 2026 ISP’.

Elsewhere (not here … but in other places, such as in the Senate Review) it’s taken some patience to broaden the awareness:

1)  that AEMO believes it must take, as a starting assumption,

2)  that the legislated 82% by 2030 will be achieved.

3)  I believe that this comes:

(a)  from Clause 5.22.3 of the National Electricity Rules

(b)  which points to these AEMC Target Statements

So there is now growing understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the 2026 ISP results.

The 2026 ESOO

With respect to the upcoming publication of the 2026 ESOO (due to be published later this month):

1)  I’m not aware* of any similar requirement for necessary starting assumptions in the ESOO process

* perhaps some reader will make me aware, if I have missed some similar requirement

2)  But we have noted in recent years that the AEMO has taken a looser (more permissive) approach to input assumptions for generation projects assumed to be built and contributing in the ‘base case’ in the ESOO run:

(a)  these were discussed (re the 2025 ESOO):

i.  in the article ‘Some suggestions for the Nelson Review panel to consider (with respect to Forecasting) following review of the Draft Report’ in October 2025

ii.  but earlier in ‘Six different lenses to view the ESOO 2025 … giving wildly different perspectives’ in September 2025

(b)  but we also noted the similar switch-a-roo pattern with respect to 2024 ESOO in ‘Once through the ESOO (for 2024)’ in August 2024 (which also referenced earlier editions).

3)  So I, for one, will be very interested to see how much of the growing realisation (that ‘the CIS is a dog’ and that we’re not much chance of reaching 82% by 2030) come through in the input assumptions for the base case of the 2026 ESOO.

Minister for Energy, Chris Bowen

Coincidentally this week, Energy Minister Chris Bowen spoke at the National Press Club (video of his address is here on YouTube, thanks to the ABC I believe?).  At about 42 minutes in, there is the question about the challenges of achieving 82% by 2030:

Understandable (given the political landscape, and personal investment, amongst other things) that Chris Bowen would still answer ‘I think I can’ … although was I correct in perceiving a bit more hedging in the response than might have been the case a year ago?