[UPDATED] Off-Target #4 – Disregard Targets – Lake Bonney in July 2018 (and possibly others)
Two examples where units (in these cases Semi-Scheduled) appeared to disregard dispatch targets.
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One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
Off-Target #3 = Forecasting Output Difficult – Macarthur WF on 11th August 2018
One example of where forecasting wind output seemed to be more difficult than we would hope it could be. Something to be further explored in the Generator Report Card.
Off-Target #2 = Unit failed to start – Braemar A3 on 29th August 2018
One example of a thermal unit failing to start. We will endeavour to explore how often this happens as part of the Generator Report Card 2018.
Off-Target #1 = Unit trip – Mt Piper Unit 2 on 24th October 2018
Highlighting one example of a unit trip. We expect we will find many in the process of compiling our Generator Report Card 2018 – the bigger question being whether the incidence is increasing (and, if so, to what extent).
Number crunching begins, for Generator Report Card 2018 (such as with transmission constraints)
Data compilation of the Generator Report Card is underway, given we’ve stepped over into 2019. Here’s a summary insight about the nature of coverage of bound constraint equations across all units in the NEM.
High temperatures (and high demand) forecast for QLD this Friday
A quick look at AEMO’s current forecasts for Friday (prompted by a few conversations externally)…
Dispatch Price spikes above $12,000/MWh in VIC and SA today
Two quick snapshots of a high priced day in Victoria and South Australia – with the price jumping above $12,000/MWh at 15:50
Villain #5c – too much focus on COST, not enough focus on VALUE
Some thoughts (triggered by the latest wave of focus on “cost” on social media this week) about why we need to rapidly shift our focus to what customers “value” and the market needs.
Central Queensland to Southern Queensland flows constrained today
A quick look at the situation today, where generation in central and northern Queensland was constrained down in the middle of the day, driving prices higher.
A brief look at the outlook for QLD region this summer
A quick first look at the way the AEMO is currently seeing the supply/demand balance for the Queensland region through summer and Q1 2019 – with the “out of left field” possibility of industrial action making it even more interesting.
Crunch Coming–oversupply in northern Queensland?
Some conversations with new generation developers about their prospective developments in northern Queensland has prompted some analysis to help them understand the size of the addressable market for them.
Villain #6–reaching for (or believing in) a “Magic Wand”
We’ve noted what seems to be an increasing tendency of all of us to reach for some form of “magic wand” as a cure-all for the vexed challenges confronting us in this energy transition.
What’s the impact of rooftop solar PV on local distribution network voltage–and its significance?
Replacement of yet another blown LED at home on the weekend prompted me to dive into some historical voltage readings (made accessible through our Solar Analytics subscription). I present some results here, and hope some knowledgeable readers can help me out with 4 Questions I pose…
Hot weather in Queensland to drive Electricity Demand high this week (and warning of LOR2 Low Reserve Condition)
Temperature forecasts are for hot weather in Queensland early this week – which means AEMO is forecasting high demand in the QLD region. With this, they are alerting on a forecast LOR2 Low Reserve Condition warning. We take a look…
We’re preparing an extensive “Generator Report Card”, and would welcome discussion (with your pre-orders)
Following from (what we have seen as) an increase in diversity of concerns (and claims) about different aspects of generator performance, we’re leveraging our extensive data set and capabilities to have a deeper look, leading to the publication of a Generator Report Card with data to 31st December 2018. We’d welcome input from those who wish to pre-order their copies now at an initial low rate.
Scheduled Demand in South Australia drops to 536MW, an all-time* record minimum in the afternoon of Sunday 21st October 2018
Based on a tip from a savvy WattClarity reader, we have a quick look at what turned out to be the lowest-ever (normal) instance of Scheduled Demand on a dispatch target basis in the South Australian region of the NEM.
Villain #5 – not focusing on the real problems
Fifteen months after first speaking at Clean Energy Summit about the train wreck that’s ongoing in terms of our mismanaged energy transition (and coincident with another industry gathering in the form of the AFR National Energy Summit), we note about Villain no5 as the next contributor to our transition running off the rails…
A case study in Active Management at a Semi-Scheduled plant – Tuesday 24th July 2018 at Lake Bonney 2 Wind Farm
A detailed look at two specific trading periods in the day (Tuesday 24th July 2018) that saw negative dispatch prices occur at the start of trading periods – hence provided a case study for how existing Semi-Scheduled plant respond (especially in combination with transmission constraints and the Semi-Dispatch Cap).
Further analysis of the (very rare) double-islanding events of Saturday 25th August 2018
The multi-region islanding event on Saturday 25th August was a very rare event – perhaps the only one’s that occurred in the history of the NEM. It has generated plenty of questions – and driven our analysis further. We share some more observations here, and keenly await the draft AEMO report.
Taking a look at Saturday’s Islanding Event through 4 second SCADA data
Following on from Saturday’s islanding event, we use our current interest in AEMO’s 4-second SCADA data to prove a little more…