A quick review of a hot and sticky day in Queensland that saw high levels of demand reached on a Saturday – with demand peaks tomorrow forecast to be just as high (on a Sunday!). Today saw the first major price spikes in the Queensland region of summer.
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.
Afternoon demand on Christmas Day as low as overnight demand as a result of several factors
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.
AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.
With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.
AEMO has adjusted the formula (i.e. constraint equations) used to manage system strength in South Australia, which has been (since mid-2017) by constraining down the output of wind farms under certain conditions.
Queensland demand ramped up, after the sun had gone down Thursday evening, to pass 8000MW for the first time this summer
With Genex releasing an ASX announcement of first revenue at Kidston Solar Farm, we use NEMreview v7 to have a quick look.
For reasons explained herein, we’re unable to set aside the time required to run a competition on the “best peak demand forecaster in the NEM” for summer 2017-18.
A quick look back at the AEMC’s Final Determination on Five Minute Settlement.
Some quick thoughts (before I run out of time) about why it’s all-too-commonly (but mistakenly) stated that there’s not much Demand Response in the NEM
A quick note about the need to avoid focusing on average emissions intensity (for the wrong reasons) and losing sight of the fact that it’s the emissions intensity of the next marginal unit of production that should be used for making short-term consumption decisions (if the objective is reducing your environmental footprint, as an energy user).
It’s Saturday 25th November 2017 and what is currently known as “the worlds biggest battery” has kicked into gear – charging for a couple hours this morning.
Some quick calculations performed today to help me try to understand what the future might hold, in terms of battery storage (given I’ve been asked to talk batteries today at the National Consumer Roundtable on Energy).