About the looming (potential) closure of Hazelwood power station
Some initial thoughts following articles about the mooted closure of Hazelwood Power Station as early as April 2017.
Articles by Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
Spring 2016 in the NEM
Articles about Spring in the NEM – September, October, November 2016
Infigen Energy suffering from “wind correlation penalty” in South Australian wind farms
Some thoughts about the possible uplift to Infigen Energy revenues, stemming from higher forward contract prices in the South Australian region of the NEM
Ararat Wind Farm begins production in Victoria during August
Quick snap of Ararat Wind Farm starting up in August.
Increased complexity, and challenges, in this energy transition
Two slides (from BNEF and AEMO) that provide some context on the energy transition
Another day where LOR2 notice issued for SA – what does it mean?
AEMO issued a Market Notice this morning for an LOR2 “Low Reserve Condition” in South Australia. Here’s my sense of some of what’s happening.
If I was going to assess Factors Contributing to the “truly remarkable” Q2 2016 prices, here are some starting places I’d look…
A starting list of factors that I’d look further into, if I was sucked into the “rabbit hole” of assessing all of the contributing factors leading to the Remarkable Prices seen in Q2 2016 – and which could continue into the future.
The Emotion-o-Meter
A figurative illustration of the broad range of people we’re increasingly seeing weighing into the discussion about the future of the energy sector. Itself a challenge for the transition.
A model’s just a model – it’s not reality (though some models might be useful)
Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.
Note – we see the “Energy Transition” as very broad
Quick note about energy transition
Hornsdale Wind Farm starting up at a time in South Australia when every MWh matters
Recording early days of electricity production at the Hornsdale Wind Farm
Reviewing Q2 prices – short-term excursion, or more systemic change in pricing patterns?
Some initial analysis about the remarkable pricing outcomes seen across all regions of the NEM through Q2 2016
Exceptional pricing during Q2 in South Australia (but really across all regions) hurting major energy users
Some brief notes about a changed pricing pattern observed in Q2 2016
The opacity of distributed, small-scale solar PV output
A comparison of the output of the two different estimates now available for aggregate state-wide output from small-scale solar PV systems – the ARENA-funded APVI method, and a new method from AEMO
Winter 2016 in the NEM
Articles we write through winter 2016 about what we see happening then
Update on “cost” of Tassie’s energy crisis
Some quick calcs to update a ball-park estimate on the cost of the Tasmanian energy crisis
Brown coal generation ceases in South Australia with the closure of Northern Power Station
A quick post to mark the end of brown-coal fired generation in South Australia, with the closure of Northern Power Station
Quick wrap of the winners of our “best forecaster in the NEM” competition for extended summer 2015-16
Announcing the winners of our 7 related competitions for “best forecaster in the NEM” summer 2015-16
Comparison of spot (i.e. physical) and contract (i.e. financial) for calendar 2015
Over on our Demand-Response focused site, I posted an article yesterday providing a high-level comparison between contract prices for calendar 2015 and final spot prices (for the 4 mainland regions). This was in response to questions from a particular energy user.
What happens when energy is free?
One scenario holds that the price of energy supply might drop to the point where it is effectively free. Here’s some of what we’re thinking about…