(A) In the clear for this evening
Quickly noting that it looks like we’re in the clear now this evening, with this snapshot from 20:10 from ez2view highlighting the recovery:
Highlighted units include:
1) Mt Emerald Wind Farm back online (ramped sharply at 17:30 following relaxation of ‘Q_NIL_STRGTH_MEWF’ System Strength constraint, which is private to the Market Participant in real time and so not visible through the afternoon) and Coopers Gap Wind Farm ramping up.
2) Gladstone has 4 units online now (was down to 2 in the immediate aftermath)
3) Stanwell has 3 units up (following a ‘trip to house load’ that occurred in the immediate aftermath).
4) The Queensland ‘Cumulative Price’ has shot up to just under $100,000/MWh … so will have to watch this if price volatility continues in the coming days.
(B) Questions that logically follow…
If we’ve dodged a bullet tonight, then there are two (inter-related) lines of question that logically follow:
(B1) Immediate future implications
First and foremost, we note that the current view is that there’s likely to be high prices through peak demand times tomorrow (Wednesday 26th May) – as we can see in the Forecast Convergence widget from ez2view here:
As highlighted in the snapshot, we note that the forecast is now (i.e. since ~15:31 today) for extreme prices tomorrow evening as well. Flipping to look at ‘Available Generation’ for the QLD region shows that the current forecast is that there will be a unit offline (presumably the Callide unit that had the explosion/fire)
(B2) What happened, and why, and how to prevent in future?
On LinkedIn I noted that CS Energy has posted this:
… which links through to this media statement published this afternoon. There will be many NEM stakeholders keenly awaiting more information…
PS … a rowdy ‘welcome to the NEM’ to new AEMO Chief Executive, Daniel Westerman (who’s been at the helm for 8 days!)