An initial review of some (wholesale) supply-side factors contributing to the extreme price volatility (and Reserve Trader etc) that occurred in the first week of February 2022 in the QLD region of the NEM.
A very brief look at the first significant price spike in QLD on Tuesday 2nd February 2022.
QLD demand is climbing closer to an 'all time maximum' on Tuesday 2nd February 2022 ... but an afternoon storm might cool things off.
A first article on Wednesday 2nd February, looking ahead in the AEMO current forecast to what would be (if the forecast holds) a new record for QLD Region 'Market Demand'
A quick look back at today (Tue 1st Feb) and look forward at tomorrow (Wed 2nd Feb).
A quick look at how QLD's Wind Farms performed today ... Tuesday 1st February 2022.
A quick look at the ‘Q^^NIL_CS’ constraint equation, which was also active today in QLD and influencing market outcomes.
We're down to 485MW of spare capacity in the QLD region ... at any price. Hold onto your hats!
Here's just a couple of the strange things that are going on in the NEM this afternoon ... particularly in QLD and NSW
Some 'interesting' price outcomes seen today in NSW and QLD.
Queensland 'Market Demand' is almost at 9,500MW at 16:35 - after retreating temporarily in the early afternoon.
Adding into the tight supply-demand dynamic, the coal-fired unit Tarong unit 2 tripped this afternoon.
The calls for restraint on energy use are an understandable step, given the very tight supply-demand balance.
The AEMO has activated/dispatched Reserve Trader for later this afternoon/evening in the QLD region - beginning at 17:00 NEM time
AEMO forecasts possible load shedding on Wednesday evening, 2nd February 2022
Third article already today ... this one about AEMO and Reserve Trader in the NSW region.
A quick look at the coal units that are currently offline today in the QLD region, in the lead-up to the tight supply-demand balance.
A short morning article, looking forwards to this evening's forecast tight supply/demand balance (and possible load shedding) in the QLD region.
... and as a result of the forecast LOR3 tomorrow in QLD (Tue 1st Feb 2022), AEMO is commencing Reserve Trader negotiations.
Hot on the heels of Monday evening's volatility, the AEMO has forecast LOR3 Low Reserve Condition (i.e. load shedding) might be possible in QLD on Tuesday evening.