Today (Tuesday 21st May 2024) the AEMO has published an update to the 2023 ESOO. This is a pattern that happened in other recent years:
(1) In 2021, the AEMO released the ESOO 2021 (on 31st August 2021) and also the ESOO 2021 Update (on 14th April 2022, in response to several significant developments after that time).
(2) In 2022, the AEMO released the ESOO 2022 (on 31st August 2022) and also the ESOO 2022 Update (on 21st February 2023).
(3) In 2023, the AEMO released the ESOO 2023 (on 31st August 2023) … but it’s almost exactly 8 months later (i.e. later than the 2 prior years above) that they publish the the ESOO 2023 Update (on 21st May 2024).
(4) That means we’re also just 4 months from the release of the ESOO 2024 (on 31st August 2024).
Readers here can access the report, and accompanying materials, as follows:
| The Report | Other Materials |
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You can download the 46-page PDF of the Update here:
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Earlier copies of the ESOO are also available on this page on the AEMO website.
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With respect to this release of the ESOO, readers might like to note the following:
(A) What AEMO notes about the report
In this Media Release titled ‘Urgent investment needed for electricity reliability’ (which is an almost identical title to the Media Release used 10 months ago), the AEMO notes:
‘The update was triggered due to material changes impacting reliability risks since the 2023 ESOO was published last August, including new commissioning dates for Project EnergyConnect, and mothballed gas and diesel generators in South Australia.
The addition of approximately 4.6 gigawatts (GW) of new generation and storage projects that have sufficiently advanced was also considered in this ESOO update.’
(B) What’s the purpose of the ESOO?
This is a useful point to remind readers here that we’ve previously written ‘What’s the purpose of the ESOO?’ as a way to help the reader reflect on a emerging pattern whereby the ESOO seems to be trying to serve various different purposes
(C) News Media commentary about the Update to the ESOO 2023
So far today I have come across commentary in a range of places, including the following:
1) Here on WattClarity®:
(a) There’s this note, obviously
2) In the Australian I have seen…
(a) Front Page of the Australian online, Joe Kelly and Perry Williams wrote ‘Blackout risks: a nation lost in transition’:
(b) Nothing else, at this point …
3) In the AFR I have seen…
(a) Did not make the top of the AFR online (only page 4 of the print copy), but we see Ben Potter write ‘Risk of summer power shortages in NSW, Victoria rises’:
(b) Nothing else, at this point…
4) In the Guardian I have seen …
(a) At 01:01 this morning Peter Hannam wrote ‘Closure of Australia’s biggest coal-fired power station may be delayed while renewables catch up’.
(b) Nothing else, at this point…
5) In SMH and the Age I have seen …
(a) Nick Toscano wrote ‘Delays building renewable energy ‘superhighway’ raise power grid fears’.
(b) Nothing else, at this point…
6) In RenewEconomy I have seen …
(a) Giles Parkinson wrote ‘Delays in massive transmission and battery projects give NSW wriggle room to delay Eraring closure’.
(b) Nothing else, at this point…
7) In PV Magazine I have seen …
(a) David Carroll wrote ‘Delays in energy transmission and generation projects trigger reliability warnings’.
(b) Nothing else, at this point…
8) In the ABC I have seen …
(a) Tom Lowrey wrote ’Warnings grow of blackout risks in summers ahead as NSW looks at extending Eraring coal plant’
(b) Nothing else, at this point…
9) In Bloomberg I have seen …
(a) Rob Verdonck wrote ’Australian Grid Operator Flags Risk of Power Crunch in Southeast’
(b) Nothing else, at this point…
As a reader here, if you come across any other useful commentary, feel free to add as a comment below.
(D) Comments from industry organisations following the Update to the ESOO 2023
As time permits, we might add in references to the Update to the ESOO (we see) from various industry organisations:
1) From the EUAA:
(a) On 21st May, Emily Wood posted ’ESOO Update Lays Bare The The Impact Of Closing Down Old Assets Before New Ones Are Ready To Go’
(b) Nothing else, at this point.
(E) Social Media commentary about the Update to the ESOO 2023
As time permits, we might add in references to the Update to the ESOO (we see) in various social media feeds:
1) Firstly, from us:
(a) Following this article we noted this on this Twitter Update and in this LinkedIn Update;
(b) With more to come…
2) Notable (at least to me) was Global Power Energy, which is no relation to us (at Global-Roam Pty Ltd):
(a) Via LinkedIn here they note:
… which is notable to me:
i. because the ESOO process has, at least in my reading, traditionally focused on the (narrow, prescribed) definition of ‘Reliability’ and has not delved into the detail of ‘Keeping the Lights on Services’ such as System Strength services
ii. and also because it follows on from Matthew Warren’s opinion piece in the AFR yesterday that also raises concerns about system strength, where he wrote:
‘The technologies to replace Eraring’s power quality services haven’t started. NSW’s transmission business Transgrid has been diligently navigating its way through new regulatory processes to supply these services that used to come free with every coal generator.
In their System Security Roadmap, Transgrid politely observe the transition to a renewables-based system will create an “exponential increase in complexity”.
This includes installing up to 21 giant flywheels across NSW over the next decade to replicate the physical properties of massive coal turbines.’
2) More to come, as time permits …
Some may dispute ‘useful’, nevertheless The Australian also had commentary from Graham Lloyd (‘Powering the nation on wing and a prayer’) and Simon Benson (‘AEMO’s summer blackout predictions give Anthony Albanese another reason for an early poll’).
The latter is focused on its potential political implications – “highlights the desperation creeping into the government camp on energy reliability”.