AEMO publishes GSOO 2024 … media headlines about Gas Shortages

The AEMO publishes the Gas Statement of Opportunities here (focused on the east coast) every year … but we don’t always note about this in this WattClarity category, given our focus is more specifically on the opportunities and challenges in the east coast National Electricity Market.

However it’s worth this short note with this year’s update.  Readers here can access the report, and accompanying materials, as follows:

With respect to this release of the GSOO, readers might like to note the following:

(A)  What AEMO notes about the report

In this Media Release titled ‘Gas market outlook signals need for new investment’, the AEMO notes:

‘… has forecast a gap in gas supply for southern states from 2028, as production from Bass Strait continues to decline faster than demand.

… It also highlights risks of peak-day shortfalls on some days under extreme winter conditions from 2025 and the potential for small seasonal supply gaps from 2026 in southern states.’

In the Executive Summary, AEMO writes:

‘During Australia’s transition to a net zero emissions future, gas will continue to be used by Australian households, businesses and industry, and support the reliability and security of the electricity sector.

The 2024 GSOO continues to forecast risks of shortfalls on extreme peak demand days from 2025 and the potential for small seasonal supply gaps from 2026, predominantly in southern Australia, ahead of annual supply gaps that will require new sources of supply from 2028. Gas consumption by residential, commercial and industrial consumers is forecast to decline, but production in the south is forecast to decline faster.

While the scale of gas consumption remains uncertain through the energy transition, particularly in relation to gas usage for electricity generation, all scenarios identify the urgent need for new investments to maintain supply adequacy. Gas inadequacy risks over the short, medium, and long term include:

… [Read the Exec Summary for the List]’

So will be interesting reading.

(B)  News Media commentary about the GSOO 2024

So far today I have come across commentary in a range of places, including the following:

1)  Here on WattClarity®:

(a)  There’s this note, obviously

(b)  Nothing else, at this time.

2)  In the AFR I have seen…

(a)  At 05:00 this morning, Ben Potter wrote ‘Santos, AEMO issue warnings on gas’.

… Not sure if the comments referenced from Kevin Gallagher (Santos CEO) are referenced elsewhere?

(b)  Nothing else, at this point.

3)  In the Australian I have seen …

(a)  At 12:01 Colin Packham wrote (and since updated) that ‘Urgent action needed if Australia is to avoid catastrophic gas shortfall, operator warns’

(b)  That article refers to an article from two days ago (Tue 19th at 21:13) ‘Australian Energy Market Operator to issue an alert for gas shortfall’ from Colin Packham.

(c)  At 10:22 Robert Gottliebsen wrote  ‘Here’s how we can fix our energy woes’ , focusing directly on the Victorian piece of the puzzle.

4)  In the Guardian I have seen …

(a)  At 01:00 this morning, Peter Hannam wrote ‘Southern Australian households to face gas shortages from 2026 as most production set for export’.

(b)  Nothing more, at this point.

5)  In SMH and the Age I have seen …

(a)  Have not had time to look, actually….

6)  In RenewEconomy I have seen …

(a)  Sophie Vorrath wrote ‘AEMO issues another gas shortage warning, but analysts question why’.

(b)  Nothing further, at this point.

7)  In PV Magazine I have seen …

(a) Have not looked

8)  In the ABC I have seen …

(a)  Daniel Mercer wrote ’Warnings of gas shortages from 2028 as AEMO rings alarm on plunging production’

(b)  Have not seen anything else, at this point.

9)  Have not looked further …

   As a reader here, if you come across any other useful commentary, feel free to add as a comment below.

(C)  From Industry Organisations and on Social Media, about the GSOO 2024

As time permits, we might add in references to the GSOO (we see) in various social media feeds:

1)  Firstly, from us:

(a)  Nothing notable (yet?)…

2)  From the AEMO:

(a)  Have not seen anything additional to the above

3)  From ‘Energy Producers’ (i.e. the rebadged APPEA):

(a)  There’s the ‘Media Release: AEMO warns diesel-powered electricity looms without new gas supply’.

4)  More from others, as time permits…