The methodology used to assess performance of AEMO’s longer-term forecasts is under review via the consultation process.
Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO)
In his second article about the 2023 ESOO, guest author Allan O’Neil takes a look at what the AEMO has published with respect to various options for firming capacity to increase the reliability of aggregate supply to below the two thresholds (the Reliability Standard and the Interim Reliability Standard)
Last Thursday (31st Aug 2023) the AEMO published the ESOO 2023, including forecasts of some possibility of unserved energy in Victoria and South Australia this coming summer 2023-24 (above the Interim Reliability Measure). Guest author Allan O’Neil takes a look.
The 2023 ESOO contains some some reporting (and data) about one particular contingency plan … delaying retirement of existing thermal generators (with Eraring a case in point).
Apart from a distraction early this morning, I’ve invested some hours today in review of the 2023 ESOO. Here’s 7 initial observations that jumped out at me.
Here’s my view on whether Figure 2 should have preceded Figure 1 (with respect to projections of unserved energy … USE) in the 2023 ESOO.
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that EFOR (equivalent forced outage rate) for coal and large gas units is a large and growing challenge.
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that AEMO is has highlighted the set of constraints modelled is only ‘System Normal’.
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that AEMO is now modelling (more accurately) the high temperature degradation on wind farm performance.
AEMO notes that ‘Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge’ in the 2023 ESOO, released today (Thu 31st Aug 2023)
On Tuesday 21st February 2023 the AEMO published an update on its 2022 ESOO.
Drawing from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q4 2022, and the next version of our ez2view software, we take a look at the *current* expectations for closure of Liddell Power Station (within weeks) and Eraring Power Station (in 2025). A segue into this week’s update to the ESOO, perhaps?
A release from the AER states that SA’s Minister for Energy and Mining has triggered the RRO (and hence MLO) in South Australia for Q1 2026.
Here’s where to find the 2022 ESOO – and also what I’ve seen (thus far) of external commentary about what’s revealed and discussed in the ESOO.
With the AEMO releasing the 2022 ESOO on Wednesday morning 31st August 2022 with the limited time I have available right now I’ve had a quick look, and in this article highlight some things that jumped out to me.
The AEMO published an update to their 2021 ESOO today (Thu 14th April) following some ‘earlier closure’ announcements for Eraring and Bayswater, which also gave the opportunity to study other developments. Here’s some quick thoughts.
We’ve chosen to republish Observation 8 (of 22) within Part 2 of GenInsights21 in this article, to help readers ask that question … what is the purpose of the ESOO?
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, takes an initial look at some of the highlights included in the AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities for 2021 (a 10-year forecast for what might unfold in the future of the NEM).
The AEMO’s 2021 ESOO was released this morning. Here’s where you can get it, and some of the articles written about it.
A shorter article – thinking more about the future, prompted by one of the factors that contributed to the price volatility seen in South Australia on Friday 12th March 2021