Updated long-range trend of aggregate wind production statistics

Given the articles (on Monday 15th April  and also this morning) about the recent wind lull, I thought it was worth updating this long-range trend of monthly statistics:

Clients with their own licence to the NEMreview software can open their own copy of this trend here.

This chart contains many stories – with some headlines being that:

1)  In terms of high points:

(a)  The all-time maximum production is still currently base on what happened on Friday evening 7th July 2023, when the aggregate wind production peaked at 8,132MW at 19:20.

(b)  But it was the month of June 2023 that saw a higher capacity factor (40.9% for the month), notwithstanding …

i.  some challenges with choosing which installed capacity to use as the denominator; and also

ii.  that Capacity Factor is an increasingly simplistic method for reporting performance.

2)  In terms of low points:

(a)  These continue to bump around the bottom of the chart, with instantaneous capacity factor in the range of 1% to 4%, or slightly higher on a good month

(b)  But remember that the low points might be increasingly affected by curtailment (which is on the rise, and was a particular focus for Semi-Scheduled units in the GSD2023)

(c)  In terms of standouts:

i.  The wind drought of June 2017 remains a standout low point in NEM history.

ii.  though perhaps when we come to fully review 2024 Q2, what’s currently happening might be also be a standout?

3)  In terms of averages (or aggregate levels of production across the month):

(a)  We see the aggregate capacity factor has stabilized (with greater diversity of installed wind farms) to be typically oscillating between 25% and 35% in a month, with a few months breaking through either side of that typical range.

(b)  The dark green line shows the trend for increased aggregate production over time:

i.  As new wind farms continue to come onto the grid;

ii.  Though obviously seasonally affected.

We’ll continue to keep an eye … particularly towards the end of 2024 Q2, which is when we’d expect (based on seasonal patterns) to see the next step upwards in the NEM-wide wind production patterns.