A shorter article – thinking more about the future, prompted by one of the factors that contributed to the price volatility seen in South Australia on Friday 12th March 2021Read More
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
Prompted by several different conversations offline in early 2021, I’ve taken a quick look at what have been traded volumes (on ASX) of the traditional ‘PEAK’ hedge contract for the NSW, QLD, VIC and SA regions. What does this tell us about a market view of the energy transition?
A report released this week by Green Energy Markets and the IEEFA exploring the prospect of accelerated coal closures, has itself caused some ripples…
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM … and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
A chart we threw together quickly at Beer O’Clock today (from the imminent release of the GSD2020) was worth sharing more broadly on WattClarity today…
Several conversations this week prompted me to update the long-term view of how spot prices have trended over time (in particular because average prices in 2020 were quite different than recent years).
Following a week where several days saw price volatility in NSW (with this being so extreme that Reserve Trader was triggered on Thursday 17th December) we’ve taken a look at the comparative performance of coal units across the NEM (and particularly in NSW) compared to prior years.
With increasing diversity, the low point of instantaneous aggregate Wind Generation across the NEM is nudging away from 0MW
Patricia Boyce’ challenging question coincided with the low point of cyclic wind output across the NEM this afternoon, and prompted some thinking…
Questions from several readers prompted this quick look at the long-term trend of coal generation.
A question over the weekend prompts this article, which follows from discussions to a Vestas-organised audience about revenue patterns and trends for Wind Farms in the NEM.
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia
Prompted by what I’d seen in the (daily) periodic cycling of aggregate wind production recently, I took more of a look at what’s been apparent over time.
A brief look at what’s been happening at Bald Hills Wind Farm – over the 18 months since January 2019, but most particularly in the past couple weeks where output has dropped down near zero.
An article today providing links to the ‘Renewable Integration Study’ which the AEMO released today, and also to the headline media coverage I have seen on my quick scan this morning.
Some brief initial thoughts, following the release of two discussion papers by the COAG Energy Council – the first on two-sided markets, and the second seeming to cover two different challenges (forward markets, and ‘Keeping the Lights on Services’).
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, invests some time to explore a number of different aspects of Easter Saturday (11th April 2020), each noteworthy in their own right (including low demand, high percentage share renewables, negative prices and dynamic bidding)
Guest author, Allan O’Neil tries to piece together further detail of what is intended with the apparent tightening of the Reliability Standard (which has sat at 0.002% USE for many years).
Two earlier articles today prompt this follow-on piece, specifically focusing on what’s being requested by ERM Power in two separate rule change requests relating to the MT PASA process.
Another weekend reviewing progress on the Generator Statistical Digest 2019 (nearing completion) and I thought it would be of interest to share some insights about Loy Yang A unit 1 that jump of the sample page provided to us in yesterday’s draft.
Guest author, Tristan Edis, looks particularly at the Queensland Region of the NEM, and an almost complete stop in the development of new renewables projects.