Evening burst of volatility across the NEM on Monday 5th August 2024
A slightly longer summary (compared to this morning’s) of some evening volatility (across the NEM) on Monday evening 5th August 2024.
low wind production
How rare are simultaneous price spikes in all five NEM regions, like what we saw last night?
A short examination of some of the over-arching factors at play yesterday evening – where prices spiked above $3,000/MWh in all five regions simultaneously.
Final figures for wind production through 2024 Q2
We’ve ticked over the end of 2024 Q2, so here’s a short note to recap the long-range wind production statistics.
Where’s the wind gone, through 2024 Q2? … with June perhaps even worse than April or May!
Extending the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend of wind production through 2024 Q2 (to 22nd June) and comparing to 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020 reveals a picture that is, at the same time, both frightening … but also completely expected (at least for some).
190 minutes of low IRPM (reaching 11.01% at 18:05) on Thursday evening 20th June 2024
A brief recap on another consecutive evening of low NEM-wide IRPM – on Thursday 20th June 2024.
A look at where the wind has and hasn’t been blowing over the last three nights
A look into the geographic spread and diversity of wind production over the past three evenings, where we’ve seen supply-demand tightness across the NEM.
A brief review of the (only!) 88MW of wind output NEM-wide at 13:20 on Thursday 13th June 2024
In an earlier article today, we identified the 13:20 dispatch interval on Thursday 13th June 2024 was one with very, very low level of wind … in this short article we take a very quick look.
Correlation between low wind Capacity Factor and low IRPM (NEM-wide) in recent evenings + Thursday evening looks likely to be low, as well.
Given what’s happened for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening this week (and even tighter supply-demand balance forecast for Thursday evening) we take a look at the correlation between low IRPM and low Capacity Factor across all Wind Farms.
Cold temperatures and low wind push NEM-wide IRPM down to 11.76% on Monday 17th June 2024
This evening we are experiencing a tight supply-demand balance NEM-wide, stemming from cold temperatures, and low wind conditions across the southern states.
More detail on the poor wind yield through (most of!) April and May 2024
With the April-May 2024 period ending with 3 days during which it blew a gale, this wind powered energy generation provided some small boost to aggregate results in 2024 that disappointed when compared against 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020.
Highest-ever wind yield … *and* worst wind yield since June 2017!
… it does not seem logical that both can be true, but (from our look at the numbers) it does appear to be!
Low aggregate wind yield after sunset continues – Sunday 26th May 2024
The pattern of low aggregate wind production in the evenings after sunset (whilst demand is still peaking) continues … into Sunday 26th May 2024.
Low wind yield (again!) during sunset … this time Saturday evening 25th May 2024
For (at least) the third evening in a row (i.e. after sunset, and in line with evening peak in demand) aggregate production from all wind farms across the NEM has been quite low … today being Saturday 25th May 2024.
Low wind again on Friday 24th May 2024 … how low was wind yield for April and May?
A similar situation to wrap the working week (on Friday 24th May 2024) with low wind yield across the NEM persisting.
NEM-wide aggregate wind yield under 500MW on Thursday evening 23rd May 2024
As the sun sets on Thursday 23rd May 2024 (the day of the announcement of the extension to the Eraring service life) we see aggregate wind yield dropping below 500MW.
AEMO publishes MN116654 for ‘forecast LOR2’ in NSW for Sunday evening 19th May 2024
Another ‘forecast LOR2’ notice from AEMO … this time looking at Sunday evening 19th may 2024.
AEMO updates forecast for supply-demand balance on Monday morning 20th May 2024 … now forecast LOR2
Following several changes in the forecast for Monday morning 20th May 2024, the AEMO has issued a ‘forecast LOR2’ notice.
Low wind conditions to persist, NEM-wide, for at least another week
Following an article yesterday about ‘another challenging week for VRE NEM-wide, we take a quick look at forecasts for the coming 7 days and see low wind persisting.
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about ‘another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 – the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
Low wind harvest in South Australia
Also on social media was a comment by Jess Hunt about low wind conditions in South Australia currently … which has prompted these thoughts.