As Q2 2021 unfolded, it seemed that there were many instances where prices spiked during evening demand peaks – and that wind output was low at the time. So I took a closer statistical look…
low wind production
Prompted by last Friday’s publication of the AER’s ‘Wholesale Markets Quarterly’ for Q2 2021, here’s a tabulated summary of some of the contributing factors of spot price volatility (and hence high average prices) for the quarter – particularly for QLD and NSW.
A quick look at monthly stats shows that, whilst it’s been blowing a gale in SE Australia in recent days, it’s not yet set a new ‘peak instantaneous wind farm output’ record.
A short note about the start of the evening price spikes on Tuesday 6th July 2021 (these are ongoing, at the time this was posted).
A short article marking (yet) another volatile evening in the NEM in this ‘elephant’ of a Q2 2021… now with some added challenges for gas-fired generation.
A Saturday morning review of the situation in Victoria, with supplies from Yallourn restricted due to flooding in the Latrobe Valley … coincident with other factors
On Friday evening (28th May) and again this evening (Sun 30th May) my phone buzzed plenty of times – due to price volatility, and also alerting on low IRPM (enabled with Callide units offline, and low wind harvest at peak demand time).
Over the week that has just passed we kept noticing production from wind farms across the NEM was fairly muted – so we’ve had a look at what it meant, in aggregate daily capacity factors. This is something we’re exploring much deeper in Generator Insights 2021…
Patricia Boyce’ challenging question coincided with the low point of cyclic wind output across the NEM this afternoon, and prompted some thinking…
Yesterday evening (Tue 9th June 2020) saw an example of ‘dunkelflaute’ across the NEM. It’s a phenomenon we will see increasingly as the transition progresses, so it’s something we should be seeking to understand, and address, with real world solutions and not rose coloured glasses.
Guest author, Allan O’Neil does a masterful job with limited time in reviewing some of the goings-on in the NEM (particularly VIC and SA) on Thursday 30th January 2020
A brief overview of a stressful afternoon/evening in the NEM, where a confluence of events (heatwave-driven high demand, low wind, coal unit trip, etc…) drive LOR2 low reserve condition notice in both VIC and SA, and gear AEMO up to call on Reserve Trader (yet again!)
In what seems (to me) to be an extraordinary measure, AEMO speaks directly to the operators of Wind and Solar assets in the NEM, asking them to update the AEMO on the high-temperature limitations of their plant. How did it come to this?…
One of our guest authors, Allan O’Neil, takes a closer look at what happened in the South Australian region of the NEM on Monday 9th July 2018
Some brief analysis of today’s price volatility seen in the South Australian region of the NEM
The start of some analysis that helps to identify the variety of factors that combined to give a shaky balance between supply and demand in NSW last week.
An unexpected network outage in the south-east of South Australia restricts supplies from Victoria at a time of low wind supply in South Australia and results in the dispatch price spiking to $14,200/MWh from 11:30 and oscillating for the afternoon
From one extreme (perhaps lowest ever in June 2017, on like-for-like) to the other (new record production) in the space of just one month for aggregate wind in South Australia
Some back-of-the-envelope calculations being a starting point to help me understand how much real contribution electric vehicles might make in feeding back into the grid when intermittent generation is absent.
Demand surges in Victoria and South Australia on the back of blistering heat, dragging prices out of their long-term slumber as a result.