Price volatility in South Australia on Thursday 30th December (2nd day in a row) – and High Temperature alerts broadened


Yesterday evening’s article about yesterday’s price spike in South Australia (due to unforseen cloud cover) has generated some conversations on social media – so it’s worth a short note to show that the price has also spiked for the 14:35 dispatch interval in South Australia today.

 

(A)  Price Spike in South Australia at 14:35

Again we use NEMwatch to take a snapshot:

2021-12-30-at-14-35-NEMwatch-SA-price1021bucks

This time with the numbering, we see some similarities and some differences in what’s happening:

1)  Imports from VIC into SA are again constrained (as they were yesterday).

I did not look at the cause yesterday, but this afternoon it’s the ‘V::S_NIL_MAXG_1’ constraint equation is restricting flow west as part of a Transient Stability limit (protecting SA in the case of the loss of the largest generation block in South Australia).

2)  We see ‘Market Demand’ climbing higher through the afternoon.

3)  This is driven (moreso today) by the high temperatures in the South Australian region.

4)  The fuel mix in South Australia is also quite different:

(a)   with very low wind generation (some of which might be as a result of the impact of the same constraint equation potentially reducing output of Wind and Large Solar in the south-east of the state – but it seems more likely a lack of wind resource anywhere).

(b)  see the snapshot from ez2view below that shows Tailem Bend still generating at a high level (despite being on the LHS of that constraint and potentially being ‘constrained down’), but Bungala 1 and Bungala 2 Solar Farms have both seen more variability in output, and are currently at lower levels.

(c)  Lots of gas-fired generation is operational – and even the Temporary Generation South operated by Iberdrola and still operating with Liquid Fuel.

5)  In contrast to yesterday, the SA price has been consistently elevated above $100/MWh since 10:50 (NEM time) this morning.

 

Here’s a snapshot of ez2view Time-Travelled back within today to 14:35:

2021-12-30-at-14-35-ez2view-SAregion

 

(B)  High Temperature warning for a wider spread of locations

The Market Notice published at 10:18 this morning (which is highlighted as number 6 on the NEMwatch snapshot above) is warning of High Temperature spread from SA to QLD in the coming days…

——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     30/12/2021     10:18:06

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         93488
Notice Type ID          :         GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date              :         30/12/2021
External Reference      :         NEM Local Temperature Alerts for QLD, SA, TAS, VIC from 30 Dec 2021 to 03 Jan 2022

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO’s weather service provider has issued forecast temperatures equal to or greater than the NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels for listed weather stations below.

QLD
Rockhampton Ap (39+ Deg C): 3rd Jan

SA
Adelaide West Terrace (39+ Deg C): 31st Dec
Port Augusta Ap (39+ Deg C): 30th Dec, 31st Dec

TAS
Launceston Ti Tree Bend (33+ Deg C): 1st Jan

VIC
Melbourne Olympic Park (39+ Deg C): 31st Dec
Mildura Ap (39+ Deg C): 31st Dec, 1st Jan, 2nd Jan

The NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels are:

Launceston Ti Tree Bend: 33 Deg C, Dalby Airport: 37 Deg C, for all other selected weather stations: 39 Deg C.

AEMO requests Market Participants to:

1. review the weather forecast in the local area where their generating units / MNSP converter stations are located and,

2. if required, update the available capacity in their dispatch offers or availability submissions consistent with the forecast temperatures.

Further information is available at:

https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/projected-assessment-of-system-adequacy/nem-local-temperature-alerts

AEMO Operations Planning

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

Might be an interesting next few days…

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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