Forecast NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ at ~32,250MW on Sunday 4th February 2024

As noted earlier, I’m trying to make a (quite belated) start on analysis for the GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q4 but an audible alert warning ‘forecast LOR2 pulled me back to the current quarter:


From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     03/02/2024     13:35:13


Notice ID               :         114201
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         03/02/2024
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 04/02/2024


Reason :


AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following Period:

[1.] From 1730 hrs 04/02/2024 to 1830 hrs 04/02/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1186 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1123 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations


Without venturing too far down that rabbit hole, I thought it would be worth adding in this snapshot from ez2view at 13:50 on Saturday 3rd Feb 2024 … showing 2 x ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets that are set to include STPASA and P30 predispatch data, though I am particularly interested in forecasts for tomorrow (Sunday 4th February 2024):


With this window, see three points:

1)  The (newly arrived) ‘forecast LOR2’ warning for NSW for tomorrow is highlighted;

2)  ‘Looking up that vertical’ to the right is the longer-lived ‘forecast LOR2’ warning for NSW for Monday 5th February 2024;

3)  But I’m particularly interested to highlight that the most recent P30 predispatch forecast for ‘Market Demand’ on a NEM-wide basis which shows that:

(a)  There’s a forecast for a 3-hour long period where the ‘Market Demand’ will be above 30,000MW;

(b)  With the highest point forecast to be 32,249MW for the half-hour ending 18:30 (remembering tripwire #2).

That’s particularly interesting to me given I’d written about how NEM-wide demand has been quite low through summer 2023-24 (at least to date) (focused on peakMarket Demand)… importantly noting that Allan’s followed that on to point out that summer 2023-24 has actually seen higher Underlying Consumption than other recent summers.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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