Forecast NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ at ~32,250MW on Sunday 4th February 2024

As noted earlier, I’m trying to make a (quite belated) start on analysis for the GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q4 but an audible alert warning ‘forecast LOR2’ pulled me back to the current quarter:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     03/02/2024     13:35:13

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Notice ID               :         114201
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         03/02/2024
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 04/02/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following Period:

[1.] From 1730 hrs 04/02/2024 to 1830 hrs 04/02/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1186 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1123 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Without venturing too far down that rabbit hole, I thought it would be worth adding in this snapshot from ez2view at 13:50 on Saturday 3rd Feb 2024 … showing 2 x ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets that are set to include STPASA and P30 predispatch data, though I am particularly interested in forecasts for tomorrow (Sunday 4th February 2024):

With this window, see three points:

1)  The (newly arrived) ‘forecast LOR2’ warning for NSW for tomorrow is highlighted;

2)  ‘Looking up that vertical’ to the right is the longer-lived ‘forecast LOR2’ warning for NSW for Monday 5th February 2024;

3)  But I’m particularly interested to highlight that the most recent P30 predispatch forecast for ‘Market Demand’ on a NEM-wide basis which shows that:

(a)  There’s a forecast for a 3-hour long period where the ‘Market Demand’ will be above 30,000MW;

(b)  With the highest point forecast to be 32,249MW for the half-hour ending 18:30 (remembering tripwire #2).

That’s particularly interesting to me given I’d written about how “NEM-wide demand has been quite low through summer 2023-24 (at least to date)” (focused on peak ‘Market Demand’)… importantly noting that Allan’s followed that on to point out that summer 2023-24 has actually seen higher Underlying Consumption than other recent summers.