The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by site location.Read More
A bout of severe weather for many parts of south-eastern Australia brought challenging weather conditions which appear to have impacted variable renewable energy forecasts for the NEM. The case study delves into forecast differences on the 7th, 8th and 9th of September 2023.
Following the release of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3 we’ve chosen to share here one of the clear challenges for large-scale VRE that is emerging (particularly in 2023 Q3) due to the rise and rise of rooftop PV.
The first part of a Case Study looking at a large 5-minute ramp in ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’ in the middle of the day (an unusual time) on Friday 8th September 2023
A brief article as a first Case Study looking at Mon 3rd and Tue 4th July 2023, in conjunction with the compilation of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3.
A brief article as a first Case Study looking at Friday 18th August 2023, in conjunction with the compilation of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3.
A quick initial article on Saturday morning 21st Oct 2023 about a significant loss of load in the Townsville area early this morning following a trip of some transmission elements.
A quick article, following a social media update by CS Energy on the repair process for the cooling towers at Callide C.
Also in the news this week (a Federal Court judgement in relation to AER instituted proceedings against Engie in relation to Pelican Point from 8th Feb 2017) … which is coincidental with upcoming changes in the market for generator obligations.
On Wednesday 6th September many Semi-Scheduled (wind and solar) units in northern QLD were ‘constrained down’ for System Strength reasons. We take a first look as part 1 of a Case Study (more parts *may* follow).
In this article we delve in deeper on Thu 30th Jan and Fri 31st Jan 2020 … two days that saw extreme levels of ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’ (i.e. AggSchedTarget – a requirement for firming capacity). A timely review, given two developments arriving tomorrow (on Thursday 31st August 2023).
A quick look at elevated prices mid afternoon on Monday 3rd July 2023.
The ‘Australian Energy Week’ conference this week in Melbourne, and the NEM this evening has given a real-time example of some energy transition challenges.
Another short article today presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on 16th February 2021 (the largest incidence of collective over-performance at that time).
Another short article today (from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q3 2022) presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on 23rd August 2022.
Another short article today (also from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023) presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on Friday 20th January 2023.
Case Study of Friday 3rd February 2023 (Part 1) … two consecutive large instances of collective under-performance for Semi-Scheduled units
A short article today (whilst in the midst of finalising GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023) presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on Friday 3rd February 2023.
In the fourth instalment of this ongoing case study, Dan Lee maps the locations and contributions of the semi-scheduled units that contributed to the +861MW Aggregate Raw Off-Target that occurred on the afternoon of October 27th 2022.
In Part 3 of this Case Study, we look at the source of the Dispatch Interval Availability forecasts for these units at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (i.e. Self-Forecast or something else, incl AWEFS/ASEFS).
In Part 2 of this Case Study, we look at those 15 x Semi-Scheduled units highlighted with large deviations (mostly under-performance) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 in order to understand more.