Was Monday evening’s new record wind production well forecast in advance?
Taking a closer look at the new 'highest ever' point for NEM-wide Wind Production on Monday 26th May 2025, and how well this was forecast in advance.
Forecast Convergence
A collation of articles tagged with ‘Forecast Convergence’ – which is a way of looking at that other dimension of time.
These might be:
1) Articles using the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget within our ez2view software;
2) Or it might be other representations of the same concept, such as in our GenInsights Quarterly Updates report.
Is VRE forecastable? (Part 1 in what might be a series)
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
Reintroduction of ‘forecast LOR2’ for QLD for Friday 24th January 2025, with strengthening forecast for ‘Market Demand’
An updated view (via ‘Forecast Convergence’ in ez2view) for forecast demand for QLD on Friday afternoon/evening 24th January 2025 ... and reintroduction for 'forecast LOR2'.
Another quick look at demand forecasts in QLD for this Friday, 24th Jan 2025
Dan shares an updated look at our forecast convergence widget for this coming Friday afternoon, in light of the record breaking demand in the region earlier this evening.
QLD’s new all-time-maximum ‘Market Demand’ on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 was ~500MW higher than P30 predispatch forecasts
Following from QLD's new all-time-maximum level of 'Market Demand' we take a quick look at actual levels, compared to AEMO's earlier (P30 predispatch) forecasts.
AEMO publishes forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday afternoon/evening 6th January 2025
Following AEMO's MN122697 (published at 06:51 NEM time), we take a look at the 'forecast LOR2' condition for NSW on Monday 6th January 2025.
NEM-wide market demand indeed peaks at a four-year high on Monday afternoon, 16th Dec 2024
NEM-wide market demand peaked at a four-year high on Monday afternoon, landing at 33,674 MW during the 17:30 dispatch interval.
Looking ahead (prior to 9am), to Monday evening 16th December 2024
Last Friday afternoon 13th December 2024 we wrote that ‘NEM-wide demand on Monday 16th December forecast to be highest in almost 4 years’. So I thought this morning we’d use a couple widgets in...
NSW Prices spike early ahead of forecasts on afternoon of 27th November
The Energy price in NSW has already spiked to up near the MPC of $17500 as early as 14:30 NEM time.
Forecast LOR3 reappears for four hours this morning, as AEMO issue another media statement about reliability in NSW this afternoon, Nov 27th 2024
A forecast LOR3 for this afternoon reappeared in the P30 forecasts for four hours this morning, as demand forecasts for the region jumped by approximately 200MW.
Today’s significant ‘Market Demand’ drop in NSW (and a smaller one in QLD) not forecast in advance
We earlier noted this ‘Significant (-786MW) drop in NSW demand, on Wednesday 13th November 2024’ … and, in response, a reader (KC) asked a question that inspired this article.
Possibility of volatility in QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024
A quick look in the morning of Thursday 7th November 2024 utilizing this collage of 4 different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view at the 08:35 dispatch interval looking forward to this evening.
LOR2 notices continue to flash for NSW and QLD for this Thursday 7th Nov 2024
A quick look at market notices and our forecast convergence widget in ez2view, to check in with projected tight market conditions this coming Thursday in NSW and QLD.
Riding the roller-coaster in South Australia (on Thursday 17th October 2024)
A second article about some 'interesting' market events in South Australia on Thursday 17th October 2024.
Eraring Unit 3 offline for planned outage … but no more outages planned for Eraring through to 2027 (yet?)
With Eraring unit 3 coming offline on Sunday 25th August 2024 (not long after Eraring unit 1 returned to service) I've had a quick look.
How predictable is the wind (a short Case Study of Thursday evening 30th May 2024)?
An (initial and) short review of the solid block of high aggregate wind yield over the ~3 day date range (late Tuesday 28th May 2024 to late Friday 31st May 2024) ... and how...
Saturday morning wrap of forecast LOR conditions in NSW
Following numerous Market Notices overnight pertaining to Forecast LOR2 (or LOR1) in NSW for a number of coming days, here's a summary on Saturday morning 18th May 2024 using 'Forecast Convergence' from ez2view.
Antony Stace’s question about the step change (down) in QLD demand forecasts in AEMO MT PASA runs during February 2024
A question this morning by Antony Stace (on LinkedIn) about AEMO's demand forecasts for QLD prompts some further context here in this WattClarity article, with quick use of ez2view.
Still a forecast LOR2 for NSW on Thursday 29th February 2024, but not as severe as earlier forecasts
AEMO current forecasts (at early afternoon Wed 28th Feb) still show a tight supply-demand balance in NSW for Thu 29th Feb afternoon/evening, but not as severe.
Stubborn forecasts for LOR2 (low reserve condition) for NSW for Thursday evening 29th February 2024
A Tuesday morning article, looking ahead to forecasts of LOR2 (tight supply-demand balance) for NSW on Thursday evening 29th February 2024