Exploring the price spike in NSW on Wednesday morning 14th July
Returning to the price spike in NSW on Wednesday morning (to $15,100/MWh for 3 dispatch intervals) to explore some of the reasons why it happened – and why it happened unexpectedly.
Forecast Convergence
Is the predictability of day-ahead demand improving?
Day-ahead demand forecasts will be integral to any future ‘Ahead Market’. We take a look at the current state and accuracy trend of demand forecasts made 24 hours ahead as part of the broader piece of work to feed into GenInsights21.
Three potential tripwires looming in October 2021, for those who are not wary
A short article, flagging three potential tripwires we’d like to ensure NEM participants and other stakeholders are aware of in the lead-up to two significant market changes from October 2021.
Out of the blue, an LOR2
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might…
What happened yesterday (Fri 20th Dec 2019) in the Victorian Region? A first look…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Exploring AEMO’s demand forecast “error” for Saturday 26th October 2019
Four weeks ago, we observed a significant discrepancy between AEMO’s forecast for (what would have been) a record low point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia and what actually eventuated. We’ve now had time to explore further…
A stinking hot weekend poses a reminder of the difficulty of forecasting electricity demand
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
Still a long way to go before wind forecasting models are as good as they will need to be as installed capacity grows….
Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.
Collective skittishness about South Australia?
With high temperatures forecast for SA (hence higher demand) coinciding with low wind, social media references to “blackout” increase. Is this helpful?
Examining why Pelican Point didn’t bid full capacity into the NEM on Wednesday 8 February
Some thoughts by our guest author, about possible reasons why Engie did not bid full output of Pelican Point power station into AEMO on Wednesday 8th February (i.e. the time at which load shedding eventuated).
[Post 2] Later AEMO forecasts moderate demand forecasts slightly – but still looks to be massive
Demand forecast down slightly on this morning, but still looking like a record.
AEMO’s successive forecasts for NSW tomorrow paint a progressively WORSE picture
Here’s an update on the situation in NSW
Initial Analysis: SA Load Shedding Wed 8 Feb 2017
A look at the supply/demand fundamentals in South Australia and explaining why load shedding was initiated.
Energy sector unions throw oil onto fire
Putting another cat amongst the pigeons, energy sector unions at Loy Yang A have announced Industrial Action at the station over Christmas.
AEMO notes low reserve conditions for SA (this summer and next) and in Victoria (next summer)
After an AEMO notice of Low Reserve Condition this summer and next in the south, I had a quick look…