AEMO forecasts deep LOR2 in NSW on Thursday 25th January 2024

Well, yesterday (Mon 22nd Jan 2024) was a remarkable day in Queensland … one that we’ll proceed to analyse in more detail as time permits (we have a long list of questions!)

This article, however, looks forward to Thursday 25th January 2024 and flags that this morning at 09:01 the AEMO was forecasting a rather deep LOR2 low reserve condition for NSW for a long period on Thursday afternoon (14:00 to 21:00 NEM time) as follows:


From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     23/01/2024     09:01:57


Notice ID               :         113658
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         23/01/2024
External Reference      :         STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 25/01/2024


Reason :


The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 113657 has been updated at 0800 hrs 23/01/2024 to the following:

From 1400 hrs to 2100 hrs 25/01/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1331 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 366 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations


Changing the context of this ‘3 x ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget’ window in ez2view this morning to look at NSW, here’s what we see:


‘Looking up a vertical’ in relation to forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ in NSW on Thursday, we see that the forecasts are growing redder, and broader over time across the afternoon as well.  For context:

1)  the maximum number in the grid at present is 13,251MW …

2)  which would be a very impressive level of demand compared with the all-time maximum by this measure (14,649MW set way back on 1st February 2011).

Another one to watch …

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

1 Comment on "AEMO forecasts deep LOR2 in NSW on Thursday 25th January 2024"

  1. If I am reading the AEM Dashboard correctly, Queensland gets a lot of power from NSW via the Interconnect?
    And that is after NSW buys it from Victoria who seems to be selling to NSW, SA and Tas.
    So if NSW have an LOR2 would that mean they are unable to onsell power to Queensland?

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