Initial Analysis: SA Load Shedding Wed 8 Feb 2017
A look at the supply/demand fundamentals in South Australia and explaining why load shedding was initiated.
2017
AEMO forecasts LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW tomorrow–Friday 10th February
… whilst on the topic of load shedding, here’s a warning for NSW on Friday afternoon.
Load Shedding occurs in South Australia in heatwave conditions
Deja-vu all over again in South Australia this evening, with load shedding invoked due to climbing (hot-weather fuelled) demand, and insufficient local generation supplies.
Southern NEM demand awakes from slumber
Hot weather in Adelaide and Melbourne driving an interesting outlook for Thursday
The ‘other’ factors driving price volatility in the NEM
One of the more recent developments we’ve observed in the NEM is the downward trend in gas powered generation, raising concerns as to whether there is more pain to come for east coast industrial consumers.
Overview: NSW & Qld Price Volatility, Monday 6 Feb 2017
Very high demands in NSW and “more of the same” in Queensland saw significant price volatility yesterday, with the two states behaving like one larger NEM region
NSW demand rises above 13,000MW
Demand in New South Wales rose above 13,000MW just after midday today despite a reasonably modest temperature of 28°C in it’s capital.
Overview: Queensland volatility 1-2 Feb 2017
A volatile couple of days in Queensland, with demand response evident
Initial Review: NEM-wide Price Event, Monday 30 Jan 2017
Extremely hot weather in NSW and the NEM’s underappreciated “rail gauge mismatch” contributed to a sharp multi-state price spike during the afternoon peak
Quick Review: $13,800/MWh Queensland spike Mon Jan 30
Quick review of an isolated early morning spike in Queensland
Initial Review: $14,000/MWh Spike in Qld, Fri 27 Jan 2017
A look at last Friday’s short sharp price spike in Queensland and why it led to negative settlement residues on the interconnection with NSW
Review of the NEM in 2016
Electricity consumption in the National Electricity Market (NEM) increased by 0.8% in 2016, this is on top of a 1.1% increase in 2015. Queensland and NSW experienced increases in consumption with all other states experiencing a reduction.
A more forensic look at Queensland Price Volatility on Saturday 14th January 2017
An animated walk through 19 hours of Saturday 14th January 2017 in the Queensland region of the National Electricity Market – a day we dubbed “sizzling Saturday” not least because of extreme price volatility
One example of how price spikes in the physical market flow through to the financial market
Illustrating how the price spike on 14th January flowed through to hedge contract prices.
Illustrating how the currently installed rooftop solar PV has reduced peak demand – but more won’t reduce it more**
Looking at 13th, 14th and 15th January and the contribution of solar PV to peak demand reduction
Queensland demand today exceeds the previous all-time record
The Queensland region experienced a new all-time record for electricity demand today, along with some very hot weahter
[UPDATED] NEM-wide demand screams past 34,000MW today
NEM-wide demand roared to life today, for the first time this summer, with hot weather pretty much everywhere.
QLD’s Cumulative Price over half way to the Cumulative Price Threshold after a “sizzling Saturday”
Volatility in Queensland on a sizzling Saturday drives the Cumulative Price more than half-way to the Cumulative Price Threshold (where price caps would be imposed).
… meanwhile, down at Loy Yang A…
A few quick notes about this week’s developments at Loy Yang A power station
Queensland demand peaks even higher on Friday – and Reserve Plant Margin is tight
Queensland Scheduled Demand on Friday 13th January peaked even higher than on Thursday 12th January, and only 70MW below the all-time record