Long or short on storage? A look into price signals for duration
Dan Lee looks into utility-scale storage in Queensland – including the need for megawatt-hours, the state of the build-out, and the current market price signal for duration.
Areas of deeper analysis
What inputs and processes determine a semi-scheduled unit’s availability
It is indispensable to understand how the semi-scheduled unit availability gets produced to optimally manage the critical inputs and comprehend dispatch outcomes. This article explains the key inputs and processes, focusing on the dispatch timeframe.
The VEPC paper ‘No longer lost in transmission’, and the AEMO response
An article today referencing the VEPC paper ‘No longer lost in transmission’ (about extended VNI-West, and the authors proposed alternative ‘Plan B’) and the AEMO’s initial response.
After the storm: Looking at Q2 2023 price trends, one year on from an Energy Crisis
One year on from a market-wide suspension, Dan Lee provides a review of Q2 prices for 2023 so that we can examine some of the longer-term price trends.
A cold evening drives NEM-wide demand high, and IRPM low, on Tuesday 20th June 2023
The ‘Australian Energy Week’ conference this week in Melbourne, and the NEM this evening has given a real-time example of some energy transition challenges.
Another research paper into solar and wind droughts in Australia
A quick note at another research paper (focused on an area of interest to us) that’s crossed our field of vision.
Digging further into ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’, to understand what Dispatchable Capacity is actually required
In conjunction with the analysis done to complete GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 (released today), here’s 14 years of daily data of ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’ that might help to illustrate the aggregate requirement for fully dispatchable capacity of some type as the closure of coal accelerates into the future.
AEMO’s MMS 5.2, ez2view v9.7, Semi-Scheduled MaxAvail in the Bid, and a self-forecasting example
Today (Tue 23rd May) is the go-live date for AEMO’s EMMS v5.2 – which will contain new data for some market enhancements. Here’s a quick look at where this first change will appear in ez2view, highlighting some considerations for Semi-Scheduled units and self-forecasting.
We’re not building enough replacement dispatchable capacity
With completion of GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 approaching, and following some conversations recently (and probably this week at EUAA Conference) here are two charts looking backwards just at fully dispatchable plant that highlight one of the ways in which ‘the level of risk in the NEM is escalating’.
How dispatch works … it’s much more than just a bid stack
New guest author, Ryan Esplin progressively builds a more precise model of the NEMDE dispatch process to illustrate why the stylised ‘Merit Order’ bid stack model is increasingly not enough to explain dispatch and price outcomes in the NEM
Liddell’s ghost stalks the market
During early morning Monday 1st May prices spiked in the NSW quite unexpectedly. Guest author Allan O’Neil takes us into the complexities of the EMMS and NEMDE to help us understand the mechanics of how this happened.
Australia’s Renewable Energy Boom – The Good, The Bad and the Downright Ugly
Tristan Edis from Green Energy Markets takes a deep dive into generator performance across the NEM. He provides his take on which wind and solar farms have outperformed and underperformed, through the recent renewable investment boom.
Case Study of Tuesday 16th February 2021 (Part 1) … large instance of collective over-performance for Semi-Scheduled units
Another short article today presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on 16th February 2021 (the largest incidence of collective over-performance at that time).
Case Study of Tuesday 23rd August 2022 (Part 1) … large instance of collective over-performance for Semi-Scheduled units
Another short article today (from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q3 2022) presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on 23rd August 2022.
Case Study of Friday 20th January 2023 (Part 1) … large instance of collective over-performance for Semi-Scheduled units
Another short article today (also from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023) presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on Friday 20th January 2023.
Case Study of Friday 3rd February 2023 (Part 1) … two consecutive large instances of collective under-performance for Semi-Scheduled units
A short article today (whilst in the midst of finalising GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023) presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on Friday 3rd February 2023.
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022… Part 4: the geographical spread of +861MW AggROT
In the fourth instalment of this ongoing case study, Dan Lee maps the locations and contributions of the semi-scheduled units that contributed to the +861MW Aggregate Raw Off-Target that occurred on the afternoon of October 27th 2022.
Bye X5, Hi X5
From 16th March 2023 the infamous ‘x5 constraint’ has been split into two. We quickly showed previously that the design of the Left Hand Side (LHS) does not vary. In today’s article, valued guest author Allan O’Neil takes a look at what is different.
Splitting the ‘X5 constraint’ into two … double trouble?
From 08:00 (NEM time) this morning, the old ‘X5 constraint’ (i.e. formerly formally known as ‘N^^N_NIL_3’) has been split into two (i.e. addressing separately risk of tripping of either/both Bendigo to Kerang 220kV line and Bendigo to Shepparton 220kV line). Here’s a first quick look…
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 … part 3 … (+861MW AggROT – source of AvailGen)
In Part 3 of this Case Study, we look at the source of the Dispatch Interval Availability forecasts for these units at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (i.e. Self-Forecast or something else, incl AWEFS/ASEFS).