AEMO releases 2022 ESOO on Wednesday 31st August 2022

On Wednesday 31st August 2022, the AEMO released its much-awaited Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) for 2022.   This follows on from the ESOO 2021 (released on 31st August 2021) and also the ESOO 2021 Update, which was released on 14th April 2022 (i.e. under 5 months ago) in response to several significant developments since the ESOO 2021 had been released.

Readers here can access the report, and accompanying materials, as follows:

With respect to this release of the ESOO, readers might like to note the following:

(A)  What AEMO notes about the report

In this Media Release to accompany the report, the AEMO starts by noting:

‘Critical investment needed to manage reliability gaps’’

AEMO has issued its 2022 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report, forecasting electricity reliability concerns that require an urgent response in most regions of the National Electricity Market (NEM) in the next 10 years.

The ESOO models the latest market data to identify combinations of circumstances when electricity supply won’t be sufficient to meet demand, helping inform the planning and decision-making of market participants, investors and governments.

AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said: “The report reiterates the urgency of progressing generation, storage and transmission developments to maintain a secure, reliable and affordable supply of electricity to homes and businesses.

“Forecast reliability gaps have emerged across NEM regions due to considerable coal and gas plant closures, along with insufficient new generation capacity commitments needed to offset higher electricity use.

Promised to be a very well attended webinar tomorrow (on Thursday 1st September 2022).

(B)  What is the Purpose of the ESOO?

On 14th April 2022 the AEMO released an update to the 2021 ESOO following earlier closure announcements for Eraring and Bayswater Power Stations.  Partly in anticipation of that release, we chose to republish in its entirety, ‘What is the purpose of the ESOO?’ – which we’d lifted out of Key Observation #8/22 inside of the GenInsights21 publication:

It might be worth readers here reflecting on these various purposes of the ESOO in reading what’s noted in this important ESOO 2022 release.

(C)  Early commentary about the ESOO 2022

So far today I have come across commentary in a range of places, including the following:

1)  Here on WattClarity®:

(a)  There’s this note, obviously

(b)  But earlier this morning we also published ‘Substantially different than a year ago, the 2022 ESOO points to challenges ahead in the supply/demand balance’.

2)  In the AFR I have seen…

(a)  Colin Packham and Angela Macdonald-Smith wrote about ‘Electricity reliability warning as projects delayed’ – with the print article with a different title, but only on page 16:

(b)  It’s only the single article I’ve seen at this point.

3)  In the Australian I have seen …

(a)  On Sunday evening (28th August), pre-empting what the ESOO might say, Perry Williams and Nick Evans wrote ‘Snowy Hydro 2.0 delay and coal exits spark power supply alert’, including the comment that:

‘The exit of 8000 megawatts of coal-fired power this decade is expected to lead the Australian Energy Market Operator to warn of a fresh supply crisis for multiple states over the next few years unless new supplies come online. Adding to pressures, a potential 18-month delay in the Snowy Hydro project Snowy 2.0 may be modelled as a “sensitivity” in official AEMO forecasts for the first time.AEMO’s electricity forecast report, due out this week, is expected to lay out in stark detail the diminishing reliability of existing coal plants, with the market squeeze set to worsen unless the be­leaguered Snowy Hydro can claw back significant delays.

AEMO’s electricity forecast report, due out this week, is expected to lay out in stark detail the diminishing reliability of existing coal plants, with the market squeeze set to worsen unless the be­leaguered Snowy Hydro can claw back significant delays.’

(b)  On the launch of the ESOO, Perry Williams wrote ‘AEMO urges industry to plug the gap in electricity generation as blackouts set to escalate’ – with the leader online looking like this:

4)  In the Guardian I have seen …

(a)  Peter Hannam wrote ‘Reliability gaps in Australia’s electricity supply loom without investment in new technologies, report states’.

(b)  I’ve not seen anything else at this point.

5)  In SMH and the Age I have seen …

(a)  Mike Foley wrote ‘Energy grid chief warns of looming electricity supply shortfall’… with the same here in the Age.

(b)  Could not find other articles

6)  In RenewEconomy I have seen …

(a)  Giles Parkinson wrote ‘Crunch time for grid: More wind, solar, storage and links urgently needed before coal exodus’.

(b)  Additionally, Giles Parkinson also wrote ‘Market operator still not told of Snowy 2.0 delays, but it won’t be missed much’.

(c)  On 1st September, after the AEMO webinar mentioned above, Giles Parkinson also wrote ‘The strangely invisible energy projects that led to all those “blackout” headlines’.

7)  In PV Magazine I have seen …

(a)  A little later in the day I see that Bella Peacock has written about ‘Decade of unreliability: renewable projects and transmission ‘urgently’ needed as Australia stares down coal closures’:

8)  In the ABC I have seen …

(a)  On ABC Radio, there was this 3 minute session this morning featuring Lisa Zembrodt, Matt Rennie and Tennant Reed with Daniel Mercer:

(b)  A little later in the morning, Daniel Mercer wrote about ‘AEMO warns of power ‘gaps’ in Australia’s biggest grid within three years as coal exodus gathers pace’:

.

(c)  Alan Kohler even gave it a mention during the 7pm evening ABC news on Wednesday 31st August:

… but then segued into his comments on inflation by saying something like ‘but in more important news…’.

9)  In the ESD News I have seen …

(a)  They have written an article ‘AEMO forecasts serious reliability gaps in new report’ this morning.

As a reader here, if you come across any other useful commentary, feel free to add as a comment below.