Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 10 years (v1)
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
AEMO Electricity Statement of Opportunities
A collection of articles about, and directly related to, the annual ESOO reports by the AEMO
What’s noted in the 2026 ESOO, about the looming closure of Yallourn Power Station?
It’s quite a topical question (that we’ve contributed to recently), so I thought I would have a look at what is noted within the ESOO about the looming closure of Yallourn.
*Why* the ‘switch-a-roo with the ESOO’?
Yesterday we wrote about ‘The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?’. Following a tip from a reader (thanks!) this article at least helps to explain *when and why* the switch came about.
The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?
This article is a first look inside the 2026 ESOO. It looks more at how the modelling is framed, and results presented - rather than the details of the modelling itself.
AEMO releases 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026
Breaking a run of a Thursday Release in late August over 3 consecutive preceding years, the AEMO released the 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026. Here's a first article, with links to news media coverage.
Revisiting the CIS-awarded project pipeline, ahead of the ESOO 2026
A year on from our 4-part series about the CIS, we take an updated look at the 89 projects awarded across the scheme's five NEM tenders — comparing what proponents have actually announced compared to the status AEMO assigns them for ESOO reliability modelling.
Reality is dawning … it would take a major miracle to reach 82% by 2030
In the past couple weeks (including at ACES 2026, but also elsewhere) it's seemed that the penny has dropped ... only by a miracle will we achieve 82% by 2030.
AEMO’s MT PASA run flags shortfalls forecast for VIC and SA (but the devil is in the details)
In anticipation of this month's release of the 2026 ESOO, a short article noting the forecast shortfalls flagged in this Tuesday's updated MT PASA modelling via MN144738 published at 14:52 (NEM time) on Tue 4th August 2026.
Confronting the stochastic reality of the National Electricity Market to avoid planning blind spots
The reasonable response is not to model the world as simpler than it is, but to confront its variability head-on: to treat stochastic inputs as stochastic, to plan for the distribution rather than its midpoint, and to build the margin of safety that resilience demands.
MT PASA shows forecast Low Reserve Conditions in both NSW (Aug-Sept 2027) and SA (Dec 2026 to March 2027)
Today's MT PASA update features forecast tight supply-demand balance in both the SA and NSW regions at various times - in terms of both annual Unserved Energy, and Low Reserve Conditions.
Six different lenses to view the ESOO 2025 … giving wildly different perspectives
About 4 weeks ago the 2025 ESOO was released. In this article we highlight 3 x 2 different ways this might be viewed - and note some other dimensions not considered.
Following the 2025 ESOO, MT PASA shows forecast Low Reserve Conditions in the South Australian region (Dec 2026 to March 2027)
Following from the release of the 2025 ESOO last Thursday, the subsequent weekly MT PASA run warns of *forecast* LRC (and unserved energy) in South Australia.
AEMO releases 2025 ESOO on Thursday 21st August 2025
On Thursday 21st August 2025 (a week earlier than I'd anticipated) the AEMO has released its 2025 ESOO.
AGL considering State Government request to keep Torrens Island open for two more years
Amongst the news articles this morning that are energy related was one noting a possible delay to the closure of Torrens Island. We take a quick look...
What’s the 2024 ESOO say about Data Centres?
For ease of future reference (with more analysis coming - time permitting) we've extracted what we can find in the 2024 ESOO about Data Centre electricity consumption, and growth forecasts.
AEMO calls for tenders for supply of RERT (in South Australia) for summer 2024-25
After releasing the 2024 ESOO on Thursday morning 29th August 2024, in the afternoon the AEMO called for tenders for supply of RERT (Reserve Trader) in South Australia for summer 2024-25.
What’s the 2024 ESOO assume, in terms of coal unit performance?
In this article we explore the 2024 ESOO, and linked documents, in terms of what's assumed for coal unit EFOR - and why, in the light of recent improvements in coal unit performance (compared to 2022).
Once through the ESOO (for 2024)
After an initial skim through the 2024 ESOO, here's (the start of) a collation of thoughts that it triggers.
AEMO releases 2024 ESOO on Thursday 29th August 2024
On Thursday 29th August 2024 the AEMO released the 2024 ESOO (Electricity Statement of Opportunities) for the NEM. Here's where to get it, and also links to relevant news media articles that we've seen.
What the last twenty years of the ESOO tells us about blackout predictions
After skimming through the last twenty editions of the ESOO over the past couple of days, Dan shares some thoughts about what has and hasn't changed over the years.