CS Energy update on repairs to Callide C3 and C4 cooling tower
A quick article, following a social media update by CS Energy on the repair process for the cooling towers at Callide C.
Eventful Days
Federal Court finding relating to Pelican Point CCGT on 8th February 2017 … and upcoming market changes
Also in the news this week (a Federal Court judgement in relation to AER instituted proceedings against Engie in relation to Pelican Point from 8th Feb 2017) ... which is coincidental with upcoming changes...
System Strength constraints strike again in northern QLD – this time on Wednesday 6th September 2023 (Part 1 of Case Study?)
On Wednesday 6th September many Semi-Scheduled (wind and solar) units in northern QLD were 'constrained down' for System Strength reasons. We take a first look as part 1 of a Case Study (more parts...
Case Study of high AggSchedTarget on Thu 30th Jan 2020 and Fri 31st Jan 2020 (part 1!)
In this article we delve in deeper on Thu 30th Jan and Fri 31st Jan 2020 ... two days that saw extreme levels of 'Aggregate Scheduled Target' (i.e. AggSchedTarget - a requirement for firming...
Mid-afternoon prices elevated with modest wind and modest solar
A quick look at elevated prices mid afternoon on Monday 3rd July 2023.
A cold evening drives NEM-wide demand high, and IRPM low, on Tuesday 20th June 2023
The 'Australian Energy Week' conference this week in Melbourne, and the NEM this evening has given a real-time example of some energy transition challenges.
Transmission outage of the Dapto -to- Kangaroo Valley transmission link in southern NSW (line 18) … and spot volatility
For several reasons we take a look at a transmission outage in southern NSW that contributed to some volatility seen in QLD and NSW in the second half of May ... and might also...
(Early!) winter evening volatility returns to QLD and NSW on Wednesday 24th May 2023
A quick article to capture volatility in QLD and NSW on Wednesday evening 24th May 2023.
Case Study of Tuesday 16th February 2021 (Part 1) … large instance of collective over-performance for Semi-Scheduled units
Another short article today presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on 16th February 2021 (the largest incidence of collective over-performance at that time).
Case Study of Tuesday 23rd August 2022 (Part 1) … large instance of collective over-performance for Semi-Scheduled units
Another short article today (from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q3 2022) presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on 23rd August 2022.
Case Study of Friday 20th January 2023 (Part 1) … large instance of collective over-performance for Semi-Scheduled units
Another short article today (also from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023) presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on Friday 20th January 2023.
Case Study of Friday 3rd February 2023 (Part 1) … two consecutive large instances of collective under-performance for Semi-Scheduled units
A short article today (whilst in the midst of finalising GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023) presenting an overview of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) for Semi-Scheduled units on Friday 3rd February 2023.
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022… Part 4: the geographical spread of +861MW AggROT
In the fourth instalment of this ongoing case study, Dan Lee maps the locations and contributions of the semi-scheduled units that contributed to the +861MW Aggregate Raw Off-Target that occurred on the afternoon of...
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 … part 3 … (+861MW AggROT – source of AvailGen)
In Part 3 of this Case Study, we look at the source of the Dispatch Interval Availability forecasts for these units at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (i.e. Self-Forecast or something else, incl AWEFS/ASEFS).
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 … part 2 … (+861MW AggROT – individual units)
In Part 2 of this Case Study, we look at those 15 x Semi-Scheduled units highlighted with large deviations (mostly under-performance) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 in order to understand more.
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (+861MW AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units) … Part 1 of (an uncertain number)
In Part 1 of this Case Study, we start to look at the large collective under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units (i.e. Wind and Large Solar) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022. More to come...
Weather! The cause of.. and solution to.. all the electricity market’s problems?
Dan Lee tracks the demand forecasts against the actual outcome in QLD last Friday afternoon. The final result was as much as ∼1,000MW lower than the maximum forecast of demand published by the AEMO,...
Demand shortfall dodges need for large demand side contributions, QLD, 3 Feburary 2023
The forecast for Friday (3 February 2023) evening’s demand was that a new all-time maximum would occur and a lack of reserve was expected. To maintain the grid in a reliable operating state AEMO...
QLD Market Demand for 17:30 lands at ‘only’ 9750MW (Fri 3rd Feb 2023)
(Not even) close ... but no cigar. Actual level of Market Demand in QLD for 17:30 is about 10% below what the most extreme forecast thought it might be.
The worm has turned? Actual demand levels dropping lower than forecast (QLD 3rd Feb 2023) … maybe no record?
Today (Fri 3rd February 2023) is an illustration of the inherent difficulties in 'successfully' forecasting electricity demand!