At 10:22, AEMO forecasts possible LOR2 (low reserve condition) for QLD for Monday evening 22nd Jan 2024

At 09:12 this morning, QLD Energy Minister (Mick de Brenni) posted this note on twitter about the extreme weather today:


In this note he said:

‘At this stage we don’t need to intervene, but we will continue to provide updates and advice throughout the day.’


Roughly one hour later (at 10:22 NEM time) the AEMO published Market Notice 113596 warning of forecast LOR2 conditions for the period 18:30 to 19:00 this evening in QLD:


From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     22/01/2024     10:22:38


Notice ID               :         113596
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         22/01/2024
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 22/01/2024


Reason :


AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following Period:

[1.] From 1830 hrs 22/01/2024 to 1900 hrs 22/01/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 599 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 533 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations


… but this notification at 10:47 (in Market Notice MN113598) that this was cancelled.


Earlier (with reference to the 07:35 dispatch interval) I’d posted ‘As at 07:35 – P30 for ‘Market Demand’ in QLD for Monday 22nd Jan 2024 still forecast a new all-time maximum’, so I thought I would add in this update with respect to the 10:55 dispatch interval:


Note that I have changed the colour-scaling for the ‘Market Demand’ grid on the right, to accentuate colour changes for demand over 9,000MW … in this case we can clearly see that:

1)  ‘looking up a vertical’, the more recent forecasts are getting hotter;

2)  with the current forecast now have demand peaking up at 10,416MW in the half-hour ending 17:30

(a)  remembering Tripwire #1 and Tripwire #2.

(b)  and that on Thursday, Friday and Sunday demand actually landed above the preceding P30 predispatch demand forecasts

(c)  which suggests we’re going to demolish the 3-day-old ‘all time maximum’ record.


Stay tuned…

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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