At 10:22, AEMO forecasts possible LOR2 (low reserve condition) for QLD for Monday evening 22nd Jan 2024

At 09:12 this morning, QLD Energy Minister (Mick de Brenni) posted this note on twitter about the extreme weather today:

In this note he said:

‘At this stage we don’t need to intervene, but we will continue to provide updates and advice throughout the day.’

Roughly one hour later (at 10:22 NEM time) the AEMO published Market Notice 113596 warning of forecast LOR2 conditions for the period 18:30 to 19:00 this evening in QLD:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     22/01/2024     10:22:38

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Notice ID               :         113596
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         22/01/2024
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 22/01/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following Period:

[1.] From 1830 hrs 22/01/2024 to 1900 hrs 22/01/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 599 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 533 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
OR

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

… but this notification at 10:47 (in Market Notice MN113598) that this was cancelled.

Earlier (with reference to the 07:35 dispatch interval) I’d posted ‘As at 07:35 – P30 for ‘Market Demand’ in QLD for Monday 22nd Jan 2024 still forecast a new all-time maximum’, so I thought I would add in this update with respect to the 10:55 dispatch interval:

Note that I have changed the colour-scaling for the ‘Market Demand’ grid on the right, to accentuate colour changes for demand over 9,000MW … in this case we can clearly see that:

1)  ‘looking up a vertical’, the more recent forecasts are getting hotter;

2)  with the current forecast now have demand peaking up at 10,416MW in the half-hour ending 17:30

(a)  remembering Tripwire #1 and Tripwire #2.

(b)  and that on Thursday, Friday and Sunday demand actually landed above the preceding P30 predispatch demand forecasts

(c)  which suggests we’re going to demolish the 3-day-old ‘all time maximum’ record.

Stay tuned…