Temperature Alert!
As we wind down for Christmas, recapping some developments (in Nov and Dec 2020) about high temperature limitations on generation technology across the NEM.
Seasonal Record of Events in the Market
Collections of events that we see happening in the NEM, categorised in terms of the seasons in which they occur.
How aggregate production from Wind and Large Solar in NSW dropped last week – one factor contributing to price spikes and Reserve Trader
An unfortunately timed significant slump in output across all Wind and Large Solar plant in NSW was another of the factors contributing to the price volatility seen in NSW last week.
Liddell unit 3 out till perhaps March 2021 after transformer incident (serious injury to one person)
The publication by AGL Energy of the short note about the transformer incident (and injured worker) at Liddell unit 3 yesterday prompted me to have a quick look, following on from the volatility this...
Price volatility (third day in a row) … and Reserve Trader dispatched in NSW
Third day in a row we see volatility in NSW (and QLD) ... and this afternoon AEMO contracts, and then dispatches, Reserve Trader in NSW
More price volatility in (QLD and) NSW on Wednesday 16th December 2020
Second day in a row the price spikes in the NSW region ... higher and longer than yesterday. Low aggregate production from Wind and Large Solar across NSW today was clearly one other factor...
Short price spike in NSW on Tuesday 15th December 2020
A quick look at a spike in NSW price this afternoon above $3,000/MWh due to a number of different factors ... including a trip of unit 3 at Eraring coal-fired power station.
Price spikes in NSW and QLD on the first afternoon of December
Earlier this afternoon we were alerted to a price spike in NSW and QLD that was seemingly caused by a unit trip at one of the larger generators in NSW.
Surprise LOR2 (Low Reserve Condition) forecast for QLD next Monday afternoon, 30th November 2020
Prompted by an SMS alert this evening, we take a look at the tight supply/demand balance currently forecast for the QLD region on Monday afternoon next week (30th Nov 2020).
More pain ahead for non-synchronous units … a bigger ‘rhombus of regret’ in western NSW & VIC
From tomorrow (Fri 20th Nov) market participants in south-western NSW and north-western VIC will need to grapple with yet another transmission constraint seeking to 'constraint down' their output when it's sunny and/or windy. This...
An evolving perspective – forecast impacts of the South Australia short, sharp ‘Circuit Breaker’ COVID response
Some brief notes about the impact that South Australia's 'Stay at Home' order might have on demand in the region.
Price spikes in QLD region third day in a row (Tue 17th Nov 2020)
Third day in a row, and at exactly the same time as yesterday (Mon 17th Nov) the dispatch price in QLD spiked through the roof. Here's a quick first look...
Early blast of summer drives NSW and QLD prices through the roof
It's not officially summer, yet - but it sure seems like it is across QLD and NSW. High temperatures drive some prices spiking up to the Market Price Cap in both ENERGY and some...
Case Study Part 5 – Why did those constraint bind – in QLD on Tuesday 13th October 2020?
In part 5 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a detailed...
Low point for demand in Victoria drops still lower on Sunday 1st November 2020
The prior record for 'minimum demand' in Victoria seems to have only lasted 8 short weeks, with the level nudged still lower on a sunny Sunday 1st November 2020 (coincident with a bit more...
Brief note about NSW price spike on Friday 23rd October 2020
Winding down through Beer O’clock at the end of a long week with the team and the buzzing of my phone distracts to a few successive price spikes this afternoon in the NSW Region:...
Case Study Part 4 – Who did What – in QLD on Tuesday 13th October 2020?
In part 4 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a quick...
Case Study Part 3 – digging still deeper, about what happened in QLD on Tuesday 13th October 2020
In part 3 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we dig deeper to...
Case Study Part 2 – did Rooftop PV kill Large Solar Farm output (and cause the price spike) in QLD on Tuesday 13th October 2020?
Based on some preliminary analysis of the Powerlink's 'Qdata' set (available in ez2view) we present our current hypothesis as to the sequence of the events yesterday in the QLD region, where 600MW of solar...
Case Study part 1 – Queensland price spikes to $15,000/MWh at 09:45 on Tuesday 13th October 2020 … coincident with many Large Solar Farms (tripping**)
Alerted to a price spike at 09:45 this morning in the QLD region, we discovered some reduction in load (spot-exposed Demand Response probably) and also a large collective trip in Solar Farm output (reasons...
The decline to zero continues… SA demand and whole-of-NEM both drop even lower on Sunday 11th October 2020
Records continue to tumble in the off-season, with the rise of rooftop PV. Both South Australia and Whole-of-NEM hit new low points Sun 11th October 2020.