AEMO forecasts point towards a possible record total demand in QLD this afternoon on 17th March 2023
Following last night’s market volatility, QLD’s total demand is currently forecast to go beyond its highest recorded point.
Seasonal Record of Events in the Market
Collections of events that we see happening in the NEM, categorised in terms of the seasons in which they occur.
Actual LOR2, and a run of volatility in NSW and QLD … only 34 days till the closure of Liddell unit 4
Looks like we’ve (sort of) dodged the Reserve Trader bullet on Thursday evening 16th March 2023 … but still poses plenty of questions.
AEMO commences RERT negotiations in NSW on Thursday 16th March 2023
Second post for this afternoon/evening following AEMO announcement to commence RERT Negotiations for this evening in NSW.
Late ‘summer’ hot blast drives demand higher in NSW and QLD
Some late hot weather (in Autumn 2023) is providing for some activity in the market
Splitting the ‘X5 constraint’ into two … double trouble?
From 08:00 (NEM time) this morning, the old ‘X5 constraint’ (i.e. formerly formally known as ‘N^^N_NIL_3’) has been split into two (i.e. addressing separately risk of tripping of either/both Bendigo to Kerang 220kV line and Bendigo to Shepparton 220kV line). Here’s a first quick look…
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (+861MW AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units) … Part 1 of (an uncertain number)
In Part 1 of this Case Study, we start to look at the large collective under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units (i.e. Wind and Large Solar) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022. More to come in subsequent parts…
AER notice … ‘Market notice from the WEMDRA – Referral to dispute resolution panel’ … about scheduling error on 10th August 2022
A short note following on from the Scheduling Error experienced by AEMO on 10th August 2022.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ above 13,000MW on a hot Monday 6th March 2023 … and Actual LOR1
On Monday afternoon 6th March 2023 a late burst of summer in NSW has driven Market Demand above 13,000MW.
Forecasts for a hot Monday 6th March in NSW, and potential LOR2 in the evening (now also Tuesday evening)
Could be a hot one in (Sydney and) NSW on Monday 6th March 2023 … with AEMO forecasting potential LOR2 low reserve condition.
The NEMs frequency behaviour – how is it going?
Following recent online discussions, Bruce Miller has produced this in-depth analysis of frequency behavior in th NEM.
Recapping Thursday 23rd Feb 2023 (when hot weather drove demand in South Australia highest in 9 years)
On Thursday 23rd February, hot weather in SA drove ‘Market Demand’ to its highest level in just over 9 years, and delivered a bit of spot price volatility. We investigate….
Price volatility in VIC and SA on a warm summer evening, Thursday 16th February 2023
A quick post about some evening volatility in VIC and SA
QLD Market Demand reaches 9,512MW on a hot Sunday afternoon–12th February 2023
A quick look at how Market Demand peaked on a hot Sunday afternoon/evening in QLD.
RERT cost estimates released for 3 February 2023
Estimated RERT costs published, pushing past the market price cap for dispatched volumes.
Spot volatility, and an Actual LOR1, in South Australia on Thursday 9th February 2023
Prices have subsided somewhat at the time of publication, but here’s a record of some volatility earlier this evening in South Australia.
Weather! The cause of.. and solution to.. all the electricity market’s problems?
Dan Lee tracks the demand forecasts against the actual outcome in QLD last Friday afternoon. The final result was as much as ∼1,000MW lower than the maximum forecast of demand published by the AEMO, which alludes to the inherent difficulty of electricity market forecasting.
Demand shortfall dodges need for large demand side contributions, QLD, 3 Feburary 2023
The forecast for Friday (3 February 2023) evening’s demand was that a new all-time maximum would occur and a lack of reserve was expected. To maintain the grid in a reliable operating state AEMO signaled to the market that the…
QLD Market Demand for 17:30 lands at ‘only’ 9750MW (Fri 3rd Feb 2023)
(Not even) close … but no cigar. Actual level of Market Demand in QLD for 17:30 is about 10% below what the most extreme forecast thought it might be.
The worm has turned? Actual demand levels dropping lower than forecast (QLD 3rd Feb 2023) … maybe no record?
Today (Fri 3rd February 2023) is an illustration of the inherent difficulties in ‘successfully’ forecasting electricity demand!
Spot price volatility has begun (in QLD on Friday 3rd February 2023)
Second price spike in QLD today above $1,000/MWh … with more to continue?