Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 10 years (v1)
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
2026 ESOO
The 2026 version of the ESOO will be released during August 2026, typically on a Thursday.
Here’s a collation of articles pertaining to this …
What’s noted in the 2026 ESOO, about the looming closure of Yallourn Power Station?
It’s quite a topical question (that we’ve contributed to recently), so I thought I would have a look at what is noted within the ESOO about the looming closure of Yallourn.
*Why* the ‘switch-a-roo with the ESOO’?
Yesterday we wrote about ‘The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?’. Following a tip from a reader (thanks!) this article at least helps to explain *when and why* the switch came about.
The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?
This article is a first look inside the 2026 ESOO. It looks more at how the modelling is framed, and results presented - rather than the details of the modelling itself.
AEMO releases 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026
Breaking a run of a Thursday Release in late August over 3 consecutive preceding years, the AEMO released the 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026. Here's a first article, with links to news media coverage.
Revisiting the CIS-awarded project pipeline, ahead of the ESOO 2026
A year on from our 4-part series about the CIS, we take an updated look at the 89 projects awarded across the scheme's five NEM tenders — comparing what proponents have actually announced compared to the status AEMO assigns them for ESOO reliability modelling.
Reality is dawning … it would take a major miracle to reach 82% by 2030
In the past couple weeks (including at ACES 2026, but also elsewhere) it's seemed that the penny has dropped ... only by a miracle will we achieve 82% by 2030.
AEMO’s MT PASA run flags shortfalls forecast for VIC and SA (but the devil is in the details)
In anticipation of this month's release of the 2026 ESOO, a short article noting the forecast shortfalls flagged in this Tuesday's updated MT PASA modelling via MN144738 published at 14:52 (NEM time) on Tue 4th August 2026.