GenInsights21 – the 22 Key Observations

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Key Observation

Page Number
(in Part2)

1

We’ve come a long way, but have further to go

On Tuesday 5th April in this presentation to Smart Energy Council members, we discussed this observation.  See the table underneath the recording for the specifics of when, during the 60-minute webinar, this was discussed.

p2/50

2

The schism seems permanent!

In the earlier GRC2018, we nominated ‘The NEM has developed a ‘them and us’ schism’ as Theme 5 of 12 within Part 2 within the 180-page analytical component.

This schism was discussed briefly in this article of 8th August 2019 (and even as far back as August 2014) – and was also mentioned in Giles’ initial review of the GRC2018.

The concept of ‘Anytime/Anywhere Energy’ was referenced in an explanation about negative prices through winter 2019 in this article “As power prices crash below zero, don’t expect it to show up on your power bill” from Stephen Letts at ABC News on Monday 9th September 2019.

This schism has emerged because of the form of support for Wind and Solar developments (which we subsequently named as Villain no 7 on 9th March 2020 in asking whether ‘We’ve been killing New Entrants with kindness?’.

On 29th March 2022 in this article following the release of the AEMO’s GSOO 2022, we noted we’d nominated ‘The schism seems permanent!’ as Key Observation 2 of 22 within GenInsights21.

On Tuesday 5th April in this presentation to Smart Energy Council members, we discussed this observation:

(a)  we used this Observation as the precursor to a discussion of what was contained in Appendix 15, Appendix 16, and Appendix 17 within GenInsights21.

(b)  See the table underneath the recording for the specifics of when, during the 60-minute webinar, this was discussed.

p5/50

3

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p8/50

4

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p9/50

5

The rise of ‘Just in Time’

On 29th March 2022, we noted via this comment on LinkedIn that we’d written about ‘The rise of Just-in-Time’ as Key Observation 5 within Part 2.

On Tuesday 5th April in this presentation to Smart Energy Council members, we discussed this observation.  See the table underneath the recording for the specifics of when, during the 60-minute webinar, this was discussed.

On 7th June the AEMO flagged ‘recent challenges with fuel availability with potential ongoing implications for reliability in the NEM this winter’ as one component of the 2022 Energy Crisis.

(a)  To us, this reinforced what we’d written in Observation #5 within GenInsights21; and

(b)  In that article, we shared a little of the concern.

On Thursday 16th June 2022, in the context of the broader ‘2022 Energy Crisis’ and following specific discussions with the EUAA Electricity Committee, we chose to share the full details of Key Observation #5 here on WattClarity.

p11/50

6

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p14/50

7

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p19/50

8

What is the purpose of the ESOO (Electricity Statement of Opportunities)?

On 12th April 2022 we decided to publish this observation in its entirety here.

We published that extract at that time because the AEMO was only days away from publishing its interim update to the ESOO 2021 to address the changed outlook in relation to:

(a)  earlier-than-previously-expected closure of Eraring Power Station (at that time slated for ‘as early as 2025’).

(b)  earlier-than-previously-expected closure plans for Bayswater Power Station.

p22/50

9

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p24/50

10

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p25/50

11

The messy collapse of coal.

On 21st December 2021 when discussing the 28 x Appendices, we revealed Observation 11 as ‘The Messy Collapse of Coal’ and included the following diagram from this Key Observation within Part 2:

… this Key Observation was then further explored in Appendix 3.

p27/50

12

What’s the purpose of a rebid reason?

This was discussed briefly in the seminar for AEC members, and also flagged in the presentation at the CEC’s ‘Large Solar Form’.

On 11th June 2022 when reviewing Friday evening 10th June we noted the title of this Key Observation.

Will provide more later….

p31/50

13

Is the Semi-Scheduled category sustainable, or scalable?

This Key Observation:

(a)  itself drew on earlier writing in Theme 13 (‘What’s the future for Participation Categories in the NEM?’) within the 180-page analytical component of the GRC2018.

(b)  but expanded further on the concern, given that additional time had elapsed and additional analysis could be included in GenInsights21.

On Tuesday 5th April 2022 in this presentation to Smart Energy Council members, we discussed this observation (with respect to Appendix 17 within GenInsights21).

See the table underneath the recording for the specifics of when, during the 60-minute webinar, this was discussed.

It was also something discussed on 19th May 2022 in the ‘Bang for Buck’ session at CEC Large Solar Forum in Brisbane.

On 9th July 2022 in the article ‘AER published ‘Semi-Scheduled Generator Compliance Bulletin and Checklist’‘ on WattClarity it was flagged again.

p33/50

14

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p35/50

15

What is the purpose of Self-Forecasting?

On 27th February 2023 we decided to publish this observation in its entirety here.

We published that extract at that time because … [TO EXPLAIN]

p37/50

16

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p39/50

17

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p40/50

18

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p42/50

19

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p44/50

20

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p46/50

21

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p48/50

22

Will add this in later, if we decide to share it.

… if we do share, will provide some context.

p50/50