The accelerating rise of Negative Prices in the NEM
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM ... and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
Victoria
Victoria’s snap lockdown drops demand forecast by ~1000MW
In the middle of the day today (Fri 12th Feb) VIC Premier Dan Andrews announced a snap lockdown - here's a quick look at how this was (quickly) added into the ST PASA Operational...
Average spot prices through 2020 down at levels not seen for many years
Several conversations this week prompted me to update the long-term view of how spot prices have trended over time (in particular because average prices in 2020 were quite different than recent years).
Heavy rain across Victoria squashes Small and Large Solar on Friday 29th January 2021
Short article today observing higher Scheduled Demand in VIC - which appears to be in large part due to state-wide suppression of solar PV production with heavy cloud and rainfall.
Cool change arrives in Melbourne early on Monday 25th January 2021, dampening high demand expectations
Forecasts was that it would be hot across Victoria, and demand would be high, through Monday 25th January 2021. But the cool change arrived early.
High temperatures, and high demand, forecast for Monday 25th January 2021
Following several different warnings of high temperatures forecast for the lead-in to Tuesday 26th January 2021 (whatever you want to call that day) I've taken a quick look at what it's currently forecast to...
Bottom falls out of electricity demand in VIC on Christmas Day 2020
Short note about what might be a new record low point for electricity demand in Victoria on Christmas Day 2020.
Low point for demand in Victoria drops still lower on Sunday 1st November 2020
The prior record for 'minimum demand' in Victoria seems to have only lasted 8 short weeks, with the level nudged still lower on a sunny Sunday 1st November 2020 (coincident with a bit more...
Scheduled Demand in VIC drops to record low on Sunday 6th September 2020
Within the same 24 hour period as California again feels the stresses of its own extremes, we see that Victoria experiences the other side of this energy transition challenge, with a new record low...
Exploring deeper (part 1), about minimum demand on Saturday 29th August 2020
Out of curiosity, and driven by questions received from several people, I've invested a bit of time today to delve further into the record low level of Scheduled Demand seen in the Victorian region...
Victorian Scheduled Demand plunges in the middle of the day, Saturday 29th August 2020 (a new daytime record low in NEM times?)
Have not checked thoroughly, but a quick scan suggests that the low point for Victorian Scheduled Demand at 13:05 today was a new record for minimum (daytime) demand. If it is, this would be...
Case Study of 03:25 on Tuesday 5th April 2016 (aggregate Raw Off-Target +359MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
After publishing three Case Studies on Saturday, this 4th Case Study in a long series is much more complex - with 8 different Semi-Scheduled Wind Farm units across VIC and SA exhibiting significant deviations...
Mapping the impact of COVID-19 on electricity demand in Victoria
Jill Cainey from Energy Networks Australia maps the impact of COVID-19 on residential and business energy consumption in Victoria.
It’s good news that time-weighted average prices for Q2 2020 are down on prior years – right?
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I've returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what's changed for Q2 2020 that's just...
13 headline questions and observations following the long-term islanding, starting Friday 31st January 2020
In order to help us (internally) map out all the different threads to explore in terms of what happened on Friday 31st January 2020 on a remarkable day in the NEM, I've identified a...
A further look at Thursday Jan 30th
Guest author, Allan O'Neil does a masterful job with limited time in reviewing some of the goings-on in the NEM (particularly VIC and SA) on Thursday 30th January 2020
Buckle in folks, Friday afternoon/evening might be a bit bumpy
Published at 12:02, this is a view looking forward to the expected (very high) peak in electricity demand across the NEM this evening.
Thursday 30th January 2020 sees demand reach 34,257MW and LOR2 notice issued for both VIC and SA
A brief overview of a stressful afternoon/evening in the NEM, where a confluence of events (heatwave-driven high demand, low wind, coal unit trip, etc...) drive LOR2 low reserve condition notice in both VIC and...
NEM-wide demand might exceed 34,000MW on Friday evening
A quick look (ahead of time) at what looks set to be a very high level of electricity demand right across the NEM tomorrow evening, Friday 31st January 2020. Just in time for the...
Second time lucky? The return (again) of Loy Yang A2 unit
It was first day back after a couple days away yesterday – and I am mostly focused on completing the Generator Statistical Digest 2019 (for a scheduled release next week, on Tuesday 28th January). ...