Buckle in folks, Friday afternoon/evening might be a bit bumpy
Published at 12:02, this is a view looking forward to the expected (very high) peak in electricity demand across the NEM this evening.
Victoria
Thursday 30th January 2020 sees demand reach 34,257MW and LOR2 notice issued for both VIC and SA
A brief overview of a stressful afternoon/evening in the NEM, where a confluence of events (heatwave-driven high demand, low wind, coal unit trip, etc…) drive LOR2 low reserve condition notice in both VIC and SA, and gear AEMO up to call on Reserve Trader (yet again!)
NEM-wide demand might exceed 34,000MW on Friday evening
A quick look (ahead of time) at what looks set to be a very high level of electricity demand right across the NEM tomorrow evening, Friday 31st January 2020. Just in time for the Australian Open semi-finals.
Second time lucky? The return (again) of Loy Yang A2 unit
It was first day back after a couple days away yesterday – and I am mostly focused on completing the Generator Statistical Digest 2019 (for a scheduled release next week, on Tuesday 28th January). Did take some time to quickly…
Another LOR2 (and RERT Negotiations), out of the blue…
A quick article with the unfolding situation this afternoon in Victoria – tight supply/demand balance, price spike to the Market Price Cap, and RERT negotiations ….
Return-to-service of Loy Yang A2 hits a snag
A short note looking at forecast for Victoria today, Monday 30th December (coincidentally as Loy Yang A2 came offline on Friday evening).
Mortlake Unit 2 (offline since July) up close to full load on Friday morning 27th December 2019
With the return of Mortlake unit 2 this week, we take a quick look at current forecasts for the week and quarter ahead in Victoria.
Out of the blue, an LOR2
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might have been expected, but it certainly wasn’t incident-free. A very…
Loy Yang A2 returns to service on Tuesday 24th December 2019
Noticed that Loy Yang A2 is back online today, so worth a short note.
What happened yesterday (Fri 20th Dec 2019) in the Victorian Region? A first look…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Sweating on the return of Loy Yang A Unit 2
Taking a quick look at what’s forecast for the Victorian region tomorrow, with LOR2-level Low Reserve Condition forecast.
Summer reliability back in the headlines
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, provides us an update today on what we can see about summer 2019-20 (in the physical market, and the financial market), now that it is only just around the corner.
Probability, Consequence (and Risk) as it relates to summer 2019-20 in the NEM
With summer 2019-20 fast approaching, we’ll use the refresher on the two core components of risk (probability and consequence) to unpick what the real issue is with respect to concerns about overheating electricity supplies this summer, especially in the Victorian region.
AEMO forecasts new “lowest ever” demand today in South Australia – but misses by 200MW
A quick look at what would have been a new “lowest ever” point for SA Scheduled Demand today at 12;30 … if the AEMO forecast had held to be valid.
ConfUSEd by the ESOO? You’re not alone.
I’d rather not add to the number of conspiracy theories in circulation, but I wonder if there’s a conspiracy to make understanding our electricity system in general, and its reliability in particular, as difficult as humanly possible. There’s no doubt…
A (Much) Deeper Dive into Friday March 1 2019
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, drills into considerable depth to understand, and clearly explain, some of what happened during a volatile period in the VIC and SA regions on Friday 1st March 2019
A brief look back at reactions to negative prices in the 14:30 trading period on Friday 1st March 2019
Yesterday I noted what appeared to be trips of two solar farms – Gannawarra and Karadoc – within a single dispatch interval and coincident with a period of volatile prices. Also yesterday, Dylan McConnell flagged a drop in output at the brown coal plant around the same time, with some questions. With the benefit of access to yesterday’s bids, today I have a look at the 5 power stations (pending a broader review next week by guest author, Allan O’Neil).
Price volatility in VIC and SA on Friday 1st March
Some quick notes about the volatility seen in the NEM on Friday 1st March 2019 – a hot day in Victoria and South Australia, the first day of Autumn.
It’s heating up, in Victoria and South Australia for Friday 1st March
An AEMO Market Notice about “Generator Recall” for Friday’s forecast hot weather in South Australia and Victoria prompts a quick look at what’s changed in the forecast that would prompt this action.
Two points about the high demand & prices, and the load shedding, on Friday 25th January 2019
Two quick notes about what happened in Victoria on Friday 25th January 2019 following conversations with a number of people.