(Early!) winter evening volatility returns to QLD and NSW on Wednesday 24th May 2023
A quick article to capture volatility in QLD and NSW on Wednesday evening 24th May 2023.
QLD
Evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Saturday 20th May 2023
A short article to mark an evening burst of volatility in QLD and NSW, with VIC1-NSW1 again constrained.
Brief burst of volatility in QLD and NSW on Wednesday 17th May 2023
A short article to record evening price volatility in NSW and QLD on Wednesday 17th May 2023
Reviewing what happened in NSW and QLD on Thursday 16th March 2023 (with Actual LOR2, Volatility and Reserve Trader almost triggered, etc) … part 1
Given the significance of the event (Reserve Trader almost triggered on Thursday 16th March – 34 days till the closure of Liddell Unit 4) we’re investing some time in exploring more detail of the event. This is Part 1.
Spot price volatility in QLD and NSW on Sunday 19th March 2023
A quick record of the start of volatility on Sunday evening 19th March 2023.
New all-time record for Operational Demand in QLD on Friday 17th March 2023 … but not for Market Demand
Looks like a new all-time record for Operational Demand in the QLD region early this evening, Friday 17th March 2023.
Actual LOR2, and a run of volatility in NSW and QLD … only 34 days till the closure of Liddell unit 4
Looks like we’ve (sort of) dodged the Reserve Trader bullet on Thursday evening 16th March 2023 … but still poses plenty of questions.
RERT cost estimates released for 3 February 2023
Estimated RERT costs published, pushing past the market price cap for dispatched volumes.
Weather! The cause of.. and solution to.. all the electricity market’s problems?
Dan Lee tracks the demand forecasts against the actual outcome in QLD last Friday afternoon. The final result was as much as ∼1,000MW lower than the maximum forecast of demand published by the AEMO, which alludes to the inherent difficulty of electricity market forecasting.
QLD Market Demand for 17:30 lands at ‘only’ 9750MW (Fri 3rd Feb 2023)
(Not even) close … but no cigar. Actual level of Market Demand in QLD for 17:30 is about 10% below what the most extreme forecast thought it might be.
Availability at Tarong North Power Station almost halved as it nurses a tube leak
QLD may be down 200MW of available generation with record demand currently being forecast for late this afternoon.
AEMO contracts Reserve Trader (in QLD, on Fri 3rd Feb 2023), but trigger not yet pulled
AEMO starts the Reserve Trader process for the QLD region this evening (Fri 3rd Feb 2023).
Quick Friday morning look-ahead to Friday evening in QLD
A quick article for Friday (3rd Feb 2023) morning, looking ahead to this evening and what AEMO’s current forecasts are saying for this evening.
Forecasts pointing to record demand and other risks in QLD for Friday afternoon.. but caveats aplenty
Our fourth article looking forward to this Friday afternoon (3rd February 2023) in the Queensland region, where successive AEMO STPASA forecast data is showing considerable variability about what peak demand might be for the QLD region (it *might*, if predictions turn into reality, smash the prior all-time record). Dan Lee looks into how the demand forecast has been evolving and what to watch for this Friday afternoon.
Tuesday afternoon look at the (escalating) forecast for Friday 3rd February 2022 … but later the forecast LOR2 was cancelled, and then reinstated
Second article (on Tuesday 31st Jan 2023) looking forward towards a tight supply-demand balance forecast for the QLD region on Friday evening 3rd February 2023.
Forecast LOR2 (and new record demand) for QLD region on Friday 3rd February
Second article this week about a forecast LOR2 Low Reserve Condition that has arisen for QLD this Friday 3rd February (coincident with what would be a new all-time record for peak demand).
Might see more price volatility this week … at least in QLD?
With Brisbane feeling more like a ‘normal’ summer in recent days, we took a look at the demand forecast for the coming week.
Quick initial notes about price spike at 17:30 on Friday 28th October 2022
A quick look at a brief price spike in NSW and QLD on Friday evening 28th October – which appears to be related to a Ravine -Yass(2) 330kV line outage.
‘Minimum Demand’ records pushed lower in QLD on Sunday 11th September 2022 … re ‘Emergency backstop mechanism’
‘Minimum Demand’ for the QLD region (in recent years and excluding 25th May 2021) drops lower still on Sunday 11th September 2022.
QLD minimum demand drops lower still on Sunday 14th August 2022
A short note on Sunday 14th August 2022 with electricity demand in QLD hitting new low points.