Wednesday 27th November saw tight supply and demand balance, NSW Energy prices at the MPC for a string of intervals, actual LOR2 conditions, and activation of the RERT mechanism, but in the end no load shedding (LOR3 conditions) eventuated.
The AEMO responds to media coverage warning of blackouts in NSW on Wednesday afternoon.
A quick look at our forecast convergence widget, with the AEMO currently forecasting an LOR2 in SA tomorrow evening.
It’s Friday morning and AEMO has just published a Market Notice to alert the market that RERT was contracted for yesterday evening in NSW (Thu 14th Dec 2023).
‘Market Demand’ has ramped back up, leading to an ‘Actual LOR2’ low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
Given the significance of the event (Reserve Trader almost triggered on Thursday 16th March – 34 days till the closure of Liddell Unit 4) we’re investing some time in exploring more detail of the event. This is Part 1.
Looks like we’ve (sort of) dodged the Reserve Trader bullet on Thursday evening 16th March 2023 … but still poses plenty of questions.
A quick recap of some market volatility (and other developments) in QLD on Monday 31st January 2023
Second article (on Tuesday 31st Jan 2023) looking forward towards a tight supply-demand balance forecast for the QLD region on Friday evening 3rd February 2023.
Second article this week about a forecast LOR2 Low Reserve Condition that has arisen for QLD this Friday 3rd February (coincident with what would be a new all-time record for peak demand).
This morning (Tue 5th july 2022) AEMO announces it may see the need to trigger Reserve Trader this evening.
An update on our thinking about LOR forecasts, under these ‘far from normal’ current market conditions.
Another update late this afternoon, with Actual LOR2 in place.
A quick tabular list of the 7 cases overnight where QLD saw ‘Actual LOR2’ and/or yo-yo Available Generation
Available Generation in QLD has been quite the see-saw following the imposition of Administered Pricing on Sunday evening, 12th June 2022. This is the 3rd occasion this evening we see ‘Actual LOR2’ warning.
Fifth article on Sunday 12th June takes a quick look at what’s on (and what’s not) in QLD this evening under AP with very tight margins.
There’s been some movement in AEMO’s forecast Lack of Reserve positions for tomorrow (Thu 2nd June 2022) but the outlook still seems to be tight…
A quick look at the current forecast for tight supply-demand balance on Thursday evening 2nd June 2022
After a week offline with the floods, I’m back and took a quick look at a tight supply-demand balance forecast for QLD this Tuesday evening, 8th March 2022.