AEMO forecasting an LOR2 condition for SA tomorrow evening September 10th, 2024
A quick look at our forecast convergence widget, with the AEMO currently forecasting an LOR2 in SA tomorrow evening.
LOR2
Belated notice from the AEMO about RERT contracted for yesterday (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
It’s Friday morning and AEMO has just published a Market Notice to alert the market that RERT was contracted for yesterday evening in NSW (Thu 14th Dec 2023).
Actual LOR2 in NSW from 17:30 on Thursday 14th December 2023
‘Market Demand’ has ramped back up, leading to an ‘Actual LOR2’ low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
AEMO requests generator recall information in NSW and QLD for this Thursday 14th December 2023
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
Reviewing what happened in NSW and QLD on Thursday 16th March 2023 (with Actual LOR2, Volatility and Reserve Trader almost triggered, etc) … part 1
Given the significance of the event (Reserve Trader almost triggered on Thursday 16th March – 34 days till the closure of Liddell Unit 4) we’re investing some time in exploring more detail of the event. This is Part 1.
Actual LOR2, and a run of volatility in NSW and QLD … only 34 days till the closure of Liddell unit 4
Looks like we’ve (sort of) dodged the Reserve Trader bullet on Thursday evening 16th March 2023 … but still poses plenty of questions.
A burst of heat and volatility in QLD on Tuesday 31st January 2023
A quick recap of some market volatility (and other developments) in QLD on Monday 31st January 2023
Tuesday afternoon look at the (escalating) forecast for Friday 3rd February 2022 … but later the forecast LOR2 was cancelled, and then reinstated
Second article (on Tuesday 31st Jan 2023) looking forward towards a tight supply-demand balance forecast for the QLD region on Friday evening 3rd February 2023.
Forecast LOR2 (and new record demand) for QLD region on Friday 3rd February
Second article this week about a forecast LOR2 Low Reserve Condition that has arisen for QLD this Friday 3rd February (coincident with what would be a new all-time record for peak demand).
RERT may be triggered this evening – Tuesday 5th July 2022?
This morning (Tue 5th july 2022) AEMO announces it may see the need to trigger Reserve Trader this evening.
Increased visibility of LOR3 forecasts
An update on our thinking about LOR forecasts, under these ‘far from normal’ current market conditions.
Actual LOR2 in the QLD Region
Another update late this afternoon, with Actual LOR2 in place.
The yo-yo cases of Available Generation in the QLD region through Sunday 12th June and Monday 13th June 2022
A quick tabular list of the 7 cases overnight where QLD saw ‘Actual LOR2’ and/or yo-yo Available Generation
For the 3rd time this evening … QLD at an ‘Actual LOR2’ warning level
Available Generation in QLD has been quite the see-saw following the imposition of Administered Pricing on Sunday evening, 12th June 2022. This is the 3rd occasion this evening we see ‘Actual LOR2’ warning.
With reserves in QLD wafer thin, here’s an ez2view of what’s running and what’s not…
Fifth article on Sunday 12th June takes a quick look at what’s on (and what’s not) in QLD this evening under AP with very tight margins.
Update to the precarious situation forecast for tomorrow – Thursday 2nd June 2022
There’s been some movement in AEMO’s forecast Lack of Reserve positions for tomorrow (Thu 2nd June 2022) but the outlook still seems to be tight…
Tight supply-demand balance forecast for QLD and NSW on Thursday 2nd June 2022
A quick look at the current forecast for tight supply-demand balance on Thursday evening 2nd June 2022
AEMO forecasts LOR2 Lack of Reserve level for QLD on Tuesday 8th March 2022
After a week offline with the floods, I’m back and took a quick look at a tight supply-demand balance forecast for QLD this Tuesday evening, 8th March 2022.
Forecast tight supply/demand balance in Queensland on Monday 31st January, Tuesday 1st and Wednesday 2nd February 2022
A couple SMS alerts to AEMO Market Notices speaking about ‘LOR3’ Low Reserve Condition warnings (i.e. controlled ‘load shedding’) spiked my interest, so I took a look on Thursday afternoon about what’s forecast for Wednesday next week (2nd February 2022) in Queensland…
Evening LOR2 in the QLD region – and early ‘summer’ evening
A quick note about an actual LOR2 condition in the QLD region – Thursday 28th October 2021