Update to the precarious situation forecast for tomorrow – Thursday 2nd June 2022

Yesterday evening I posted about the forecast for LOR2 Low Reserve Condition in both QLD and NSW for tomorrow – Thursday 2nd June (particularly in the evening) – due to a confluence of events.  This is a brief update on two fronts:

(A)  Notification of Potential Gas Supply Shortfall Event

Firstly, I’d draw your attention to Market Notice 96727 published today at 15:46 as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     01/06/2022     15:46:06

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Notice ID               :         96727
Notice Type ID          :         GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date              :         01/06/2022
External Reference      :         Notification of a Potential Gas Supply Shortfall Event

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Reason :

Notification of a Potential Gas Supply Shortfall Event

AEMO has a potential gas supply shortfall event for the VIC, SA, TAS regions for GD 02/06/22.

AEMO will convene a gas supply guarantee assessment conference with contacts that AEMO determines will be able to contribute or response to the potential gas supply shortfall to assess the event.

The event notice can be found here:  http://nemweb.com.au/Reports/Current/Gas_Supply_Guarantee/

Manager NEM RTO

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END OF REPORT
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This is the first of these types of Market Notices I can ever remember seeing!

Given the cold weather being experienced across southern Australia, and a reminder that gas is used both:

1)  Directly:

(a)  With particular interest in domestic heating in Victoria tomorrow (which I presume would be at heightened demand due to the cold temperatures), but also

(b)  In commercial and industrial applications (which I presume might be expected to be much the same as any other working day).

2)  Indirectly, in gas-fired generation … which looks set to be called on to produce more, particularly in the evening periods with:

(a)  Earlier sunset in winter, so:

i.  Earlier lighting requirement; and

ii.  Earlier sunset of solar PV generation (both rooftop and Large Solar).

(b)  And also increased electricity consumption due to increased demand for electrified heating (both the old style inefficient radiant types and the more efficient reverse cycle air-conditioning and heat pumps).

(B)  Changed focus of LOR2 level shortage forecasts

With the above in mind, it’s worth highlighting that the following has happened through today (with respect to yesterday’s 2-day-ahead LOR2 forecasts for QLD and NSW tomorrow):

I’ve not looked into what caused the sudden declaration of LOR2 risk, or the fast resolution of that issue.

However I did open up this same pre-prepared trend widget from ez2view online that I referred to yesterday to see what the updated NEM-wide prognosis was in terms of supply and demand:

The point of most interest (around 19:00 tomorrow evening) is still clearly visible.

(C)  What will unfold?

What will actually happen on the day tomorrow … particularly tomorrow evening?

1)   It looks likely to be even tighter than this evening (where IRPM has already dropped below 15% yellow alert level).

2)  Remember you should be able to watch this live on this Dashboard as it unfolds.

Challenging times ahead … through winter 2022, but then also out into the future as this energy transition rolls forward…