At 23:44 on Monday, the AEMO published Market Notice 105397 warning that the forecasts now see a possible LOR2 Low Reserve Condition for Friday afternoon/evening (i.e. as solar yield sets but whilst demand remains high):
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 30/01/2023 23:44:09
Notice ID : 105397
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 30/01/2023
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 03/02/2023
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:
From 1730 hrs 03/02/2023 to 2000 hrs 03/02/2023.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 525 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 431 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
END OF REPORT
Remember with Forecast Convergence the benefit of ‘looking up a vertical’ to understand ‘that other dimension of time’.
The first row of orange in the LOR-focused widget coincided with the first ST PASA forecast for a level of Market Demand in the QLD region peaking above 10,000MW (i.e. both in the 23:00 forecast Monday night, hence the Market Notice).
As I publish this morning, the most recent forecast (i.e. published for 08:00 this morning) has the QLD demand forecast to peak at 10,153MW in the half hour ending 17:30 NEM time.
1) For context, a new all-time record demand in QLD was set on 8th March 2022 (‘Market Demand’ at 10,119 MW) as noted in this article at the time.
… so the forecast (if it were to come true) would mean a new all-time record.
2) At this time, the AEMO’s forecast Wind and Large Solar capability (i.e. UIGF) for QLD is down to 961MW and falling rapidly (from a forecast peak of 1,878MW in the middle of the day).
This will be one to watch in the next couple days…