We published this initial note yesterday about possible volatility in QLD on Friday 3rd February (which elicited some concern from some energy user advocates).
At 23:44 on Monday, the AEMO published Market Notice 105397 warning that the forecasts now see a possible LOR2 Low Reserve Condition for Friday afternoon/evening (i.e. as solar yield sets but whilst demand remains high):
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 30/01/2023 23:44:09
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Notice ID : 105397
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 30/01/2023
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 03/02/2023
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:
From 1730 hrs 03/02/2023 to 2000 hrs 03/02/2023.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 525 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 431 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
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A quick look with the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view reveals why the escalating forecast:
Remember with Forecast Convergence the benefit of ‘looking up a vertical’ to understand ‘that other dimension of time’.
The first row of orange in the LOR-focused widget coincided with the first ST PASA forecast for a level of Market Demand in the QLD region peaking above 10,000MW (i.e. both in the 23:00 forecast Monday night, hence the Market Notice).
As I publish this morning, the most recent forecast (i.e. published for 08:00 this morning) has the QLD demand forecast to peak at 10,153MW in the half hour ending 17:30 NEM time.
1) For context, a new all-time record demand in QLD was set on 8th March 2022 (‘Market Demand’ at 10,119 MW) as noted in this article at the time.
… so the forecast (if it were to come true) would mean a new all-time record.
2) At this time, the AEMO’s forecast Wind and Large Solar capability (i.e. UIGF) for QLD is down to 961MW and falling rapidly (from a forecast peak of 1,878MW in the middle of the day).
This will be one to watch in the next couple days…
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