Dr Adrian Grantham from the AEMO has written this guest-authored post to provide an introduction into the functions of the organisation's Operational Forecasting team, the types of forecasts and other work they deliver, and the internal and external stakeholders they engage with.
A look at how AEMO’s short-term forecasts have performed at the daily peak in Queensland over the past seven summers — and how that performance is changing as rooftop PV grows.
After skimming through the last twenty editions of the ESOO over the past couple of days, Dan shares some thoughts about what has and hasn't changed over the years.
A quick look (Friday morning 8th March 2024) to moderately high levels of demand forecast for SA in heatwave conditions this long (Adelaide Cup Day) weekend.
A question this morning by Antony Stace (on LinkedIn) about AEMO's demand forecasts for QLD prompts some further context here in this WattClarity article, with quick use of ez2view.
A brief chart to capture VIC demand climbing above expectations.
AEMO notes that 'Australia's NEM is perched on the edge' in the 2023 ESOO, released today (Thu 31st Aug 2023)
Estimated RERT costs published, pushing past the market price cap for dispatched volumes.
Dan Lee tracks the demand forecasts against the actual outcome in QLD last Friday afternoon. The final result was as much as ∼1,000MW lower than the maximum forecast of demand published by the AEMO, which alludes to the inherent difficulty of electricity market forecasting.
(Not even) close ... but no cigar. Actual level of Market Demand in QLD for 17:30 is about 10% below what the most extreme forecast thought it might be.
Today (Fri 3rd February 2023) is an illustration of the inherent difficulties in 'successfully' forecasting electricity demand!
Our fourth article looking forward to this Friday afternoon (3rd February 2023) in the Queensland region, where successive AEMO STPASA forecast data is showing considerable variability about what peak demand might be for the QLD region (it *might*, if predictions turn into reality, smash the...
Day-ahead demand forecasts will be integral to any future 'Ahead Market'. We take a look at the current state and accuracy trend of demand forecasts made 24 hours ahead as part of the broader piece of work to feed into GenInsights21.
In this article we discuss the 1st of 3 Potential Tripwires that wholesale market participants and others will encounter from October 2021 ... with Tripwire #1 coming from the implementation of Five Minute Settlement.
A short article, flagging three potential tripwires we'd like to ensure NEM participants and other stakeholders are aware of in the lead-up to two significant market changes from October 2021.
Three price spikes in the QLD region on Saturday 10th April 2021 help to remind us that how increasingly dependent we are on various machinations of the weather (including, on these occasions, cloud cover and solar output).
Forecasts was that it would be hot across Victoria, and demand would be high, through Monday 25th January 2021. But the cool change arrived early.
Four weeks ago, we observed a significant discrepancy between AEMO's forecast for (what would have been) a record low point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia and what actually eventuated. We've now had time to explore further...
The start of some analysis that helps to identify the variety of factors that combined to give a shaky balance between supply and demand in NSW last week.
AEMO's demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce "Scheduled Demand".