Forecasts was that it would be hot across Victoria, and demand would be high, through Monday 25th January 2021. But the cool change arrived early.
Four weeks ago, we observed a significant discrepancy between AEMO’s forecast for (what would have been) a record low point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia and what actually eventuated. We’ve now had time to explore further…
The start of some analysis that helps to identify the variety of factors that combined to give a shaky balance between supply and demand in NSW last week.
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
Some analysis of how demand in Victoria has trended over 16 years – at least in part to help competition entrants provide their forecasts of what they think the peak Victorian regional demand will be for summer 2014-15
Some assorted thoughts about the RET, and the RET Review process currently underway