What the last twenty years of the ESOO tells us about blackout predictions
After skimming through the last twenty editions of the ESOO over the past couple of days, Dan shares some thoughts about what has and hasn’t changed over the years.
demand forecasting
Moderately high demand forecast for South Australia on the Adelaide Cup Day long weekend
A quick look (Friday morning 8th March 2024) to moderately high levels of demand forecast for SA in heatwave conditions this long (Adelaide Cup Day) weekend.
Antony Stace’s question about the step change (down) in QLD demand forecasts in AEMO MT PASA runs during February 2024
A question this morning by Antony Stace (on LinkedIn) about AEMO’s demand forecasts for QLD prompts some further context here in this WattClarity article, with quick use of ez2view.
VIC Demand Running above Forecasts on 22nd February 2024
A brief chart to capture VIC demand climbing above expectations.
AEMO releases 2023 ESOO on Thursday 31st August 2023 (Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge)
AEMO notes that ‘Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge’ in the 2023 ESOO, released today (Thu 31st Aug 2023)
RERT cost estimates released for 3 February 2023
Estimated RERT costs published, pushing past the market price cap for dispatched volumes.
Weather! The cause of.. and solution to.. all the electricity market’s problems?
Dan Lee tracks the demand forecasts against the actual outcome in QLD last Friday afternoon. The final result was as much as ∼1,000MW lower than the maximum forecast of demand published by the AEMO, which alludes to the inherent difficulty of electricity market forecasting.
QLD Market Demand for 17:30 lands at ‘only’ 9750MW (Fri 3rd Feb 2023)
(Not even) close … but no cigar. Actual level of Market Demand in QLD for 17:30 is about 10% below what the most extreme forecast thought it might be.
The worm has turned? Actual demand levels dropping lower than forecast (QLD 3rd Feb 2023) … maybe no record?
Today (Fri 3rd February 2023) is an illustration of the inherent difficulties in ‘successfully’ forecasting electricity demand!
Forecasts pointing to record demand and other risks in QLD for Friday afternoon.. but caveats aplenty
Our fourth article looking forward to this Friday afternoon (3rd February 2023) in the Queensland region, where successive AEMO STPASA forecast data is showing considerable variability about what peak demand might be for the QLD region (it *might*, if predictions turn into reality, smash the prior all-time record). Dan Lee looks into how the demand forecast has been evolving and what to watch for this Friday afternoon.
Is the predictability of day-ahead demand improving?
Day-ahead demand forecasts will be integral to any future ‘Ahead Market’. We take a look at the current state and accuracy trend of demand forecasts made 24 hours ahead as part of the broader piece of work to feed into GenInsights21.
Potential Tripwire #1 = the ‘invisible’ 5-minute Trading Periods?!
In this article we discuss the 1st of 3 Potential Tripwires that wholesale market participants and others will encounter from October 2021 … with Tripwire #1 coming from the implementation of Five Minute Settlement.
Three potential tripwires looming in October 2021, for those who are not wary
A short article, flagging three potential tripwires we’d like to ensure NEM participants and other stakeholders are aware of in the lead-up to two significant market changes from October 2021.
Several QLD price spikes on Saturday 10th April 2021
Three price spikes in the QLD region on Saturday 10th April 2021 help to remind us that how increasingly dependent we are on various machinations of the weather (including, on these occasions, cloud cover and solar output).
Cool change arrives in Melbourne early on Monday 25th January 2021, dampening high demand expectations
Forecasts was that it would be hot across Victoria, and demand would be high, through Monday 25th January 2021. But the cool change arrived early.
Exploring AEMO’s demand forecast “error” for Saturday 26th October 2019
Four weeks ago, we observed a significant discrepancy between AEMO’s forecast for (what would have been) a record low point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia and what actually eventuated. We’ve now had time to explore further…
Recapping a shaky week for the supply-demand balance in the NSW region last week (Mon 4th June to Fri 8th June 2018)
The start of some analysis that helps to identify the variety of factors that combined to give a shaky balance between supply and demand in NSW last week.
A stinking hot weekend poses a reminder of the difficulty of forecasting electricity demand
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
Analysing trends in VIC electricity demand
Some analysis of how demand in Victoria has trended over 16 years – at least in part to help competition entrants provide their forecasts of what they think the peak Victorian regional demand will be for summer 2014-15
A few thoughts on the RET Review process
Some assorted thoughts about the RET, and the RET Review process currently underway