Enhancement of ASEFS and AWEFS forecasts provided by AEMO – from Wednesday 23th November 2022

This is a very short article (with relatively scant detail, compared to most other articles at WattClarity) aimed:

1)  To briefly flag to readers that some things are changing today in relation to the ‘Available Generation’ forecasts for Semi-Scheduled units, published for the current* dispatch interval by AEMO in the NEMDE dispatch process; and

2)  To provide a contemporaneous record of the change that we can refer back to later.

I don’t have much time to add a whole lot of detail at this point …


(A)  Prior Notice of the change

In the Intermittent Generation Session on 29th July 2022 the AEMO spoke about this change – see slides 17/37 and 18/37 below:



So, in summary, the AEMO realised that they could do a lot better by building a better model themselves than outsourcing to a 3rd party vendor located in a different part of the world.


(B)  Implementation

The change has been running in pre-prod for a short period of time.

The change on Wednesday 23rd November (i.e. moving to ‘prod’) has been noted a number of times – including in AEMO change notice CHG0076286 yesterday (i.e. which has to do with Production systems and was titled ‘Enhanced AWEFS/ASEFS dispatch forecast (VREFS) Implementation – unsuppressed mode’.

In simple terms, it ‘goes live’ today.


(C)  Implications

There are a number of possible implications of this change that we will be keen to explore in various ways … such as:

1)  In upcoming updates to the GenInsights Quarterly Updates … and

2)  In the more statistically based and granular, down-at-a-unit-level, Generator Statistical Digest 2022 (GSD2022).

Let’s see how it does in reducing Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Scheduled plant (something analysed in GenInsights21 and discussed in this presentation for Smart Energy Council, for instance)….

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

1 Comment on "Enhancement of ASEFS and AWEFS forecasts provided by AEMO – from Wednesday 23th November 2022"

  1. Wonder how both models performed on the night of Wednesday 7 September 2022 when South Australia “lost” 433 MW of wind generation that didn’t arrive as forecast at 11 pm.

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