Tight supply-demand balance in QLD on Thursday 9th December 2021

With the clock ticking down on the intended release of GenInsights21 (see this update from Monday this week describing some of the 28 individual ‘Deep Dive’ appendices) I don’t have time to do more than post this snapshot from NEMwatch in the 18:00 dispatch/trading interval on Thursday 9th December 2021:

I’ve highlighted a couple things in the display as follows:

1)  Price is up at $10,177.59/MWh in the 18:00 dispatch/trading interval

2)  The price series shows the price started climbing as early as 14:50 (above $100/MWh) and triggered to $1,132/MWh at 16:50 (so this commercial storm has been brewing all afternoon)

3)  This coincided with the ramp down of solar (accelerated by storm fronts moving in through the afternoon … continuing what Ben Domensino noted happened in November)

4)  The humidity is still up, driving air-conditioning load and hence demand (technically, the measure shown here is the MMS ‘Total Demand’ which you might think of as ‘Market Demand’)

5)  The Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin is down in the red zone at 11%, with interconnector constraints creating an ‘Economic Island’ with just QLD inside.

6)  As a result of this, the AEMO has issued an Actual LOR1 Low Reserve Condition notice, and a forecast for LOR2 this evening (and also a forecast for Thursday 16th December):

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     09/12/2021     17:51:11

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Notice ID               :         93072
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         09/12/2021
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 09/12/2021

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:

[1.] From 1830 hrs 09/12/2021 to 1930 hrs 09/12/2021.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 606 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 578 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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That’s all for now… back to GenInsights21 (and don’t forget to send in your pre-orders & thanks to the increasing number of clients who have!)