Gas issues and low wind contribute to low NEM-wide IRPM (and volatility) on Monday 21st June 2021


Yesterday afternoon, Allan O’Neil posted ‘An Appetiser’ to kick off his broader review of what’s been happening this quarter … but it’s important for readers to note that ‘the elephant’ is still growing and evolving.

Here’s two events today to add to the list:

 

(A)  Disruptions in the gas market

This afternoon I noted that Josh Stabler at Energy Edge had shared via LinkedIn about … and it was important to circulate Josh’s insights further:

2021-06-21-LinkedIn-JoshStabler-GasPriceHigh

Note the potential impact flagged on several gas-fired units in Victoria:

1)  Newport Power Station (which we noted before has been running strongly); and

2)  Jeeralang A and B; and

3)  Valley Power.

We’ll look to see how long this impacts on gas supply (and price), and how this flows through to electricity market prices.

 

(B)  Low IRPM NEM-wide Monday evening, 21st June 2021

This evening my phone has been buzzing again with SMS alerts – here’s a snapshot of the ‘Low IRPM’ alerts that I have received to date:

2021-06-21-SMSalerts-LowIRPM

With reference to this discussion about low IRPM from earlier in the quarter, we note the level dropped to 12.84% for the 17:40 dispatch interval.

>>> This is something we’ll be seeking to explore more systematically through GenInsights21

With such a low level of surplus capacity at any price across the whole of the NEM, was it any surprise to see prices spike this the 17:40 dispatch interval captured in a display copy of NEMwatch v10:

2021-06-21-at-17-40-NEMwatch-PriceSpike

As Josh says in his article on LinkedIn above ‘when it rains it pours’.

I’ve annotated in the NEMwatch snapshot how this evening we’re grappling with coincident:

1)   gas issues and

2)  low wind generation,

3)  along with sunset and

4)  the pre-existing issues with coal plant.

No wonder prices are high!

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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