AEMO releases its 2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO)

This morning (Thursday 27th August 2020) we saw the AEMO release the 2020 edition of the Electricity Statement of Opportunities:

The web page with summary, and various links.

The 135-page PDF

2020-08-27-AEMO-ESOO-the-WebPage 2020-08-27-AEMO-ESOO-the-PDF

Click on the images above to link to the relevant pages


(A)  Discussion about the ESOO

Coverage I have seen this morning is as follows…

(A1)  Discussion elsewhere

What I have seen includes the following:

In the AFR, Angela Macdonald-Smith and Mark Ludlow published early this morning about ‘Pandemic keeps power market on edge for summer peak’

In the Australian, Perry Williams published early this morning about ‘Solar rush generates grid risks: AEMO’

In RenewEconomy:
(a)  Giles Parkinson published early this morning about ‘New wind and solar improving grid reliability and lowering costs, AEMO says’
(b)  Giles also wrote about ‘AEMO sees urgent need to have power to switch off rooftop PV’

I missed it earlier, but see now that Miki Perkins and Nick Toscano published ‘COVID and the rise of renewables make summer blackouts less likely’ in the Age earlier this morning.

Could not find anything specific in the ABC at this point?

The EUAA writes in their press release ‘Near Term Reliability Secure But Storm Clouds Are Gathering – AEMO 2020 ESOO  ’

… and no doubt there will be much more today.

(A2)  Unpacking the ESOO 2020 on WattClarity®

I don’t have time today, but am hopeful that our guest author, Allan O’Neil, will have time to review and put some thoughts together on this tomorrow and/or early next week…

These insights shared on prior issues of the ESOO might help in unpicking this version:

Summer 2020-21
and the ESOO 2020

Relevant to the summer 2020-21 period that is the focus of this year’s ESOO was Allan’s article on 25th March, ‘ICYMI – COAG EC flags reliability framework changes’.

On 3rd August, we also noted AEMO tendered for short-notice RERT panel for summer 2020-21.

The ESOO 2020 was released on 27th August 2020 (today).

Next day (Fri 28th Aug), Allan O’Neil contributed this review of the ESOO 2020 titled ‘What a difference a year makes’.

Summer 2019-20
and the ESOO 2019

The ESOO 2019 was released on 22nd August 2019.

On 23rd August 2019 Allan contributed ‘ConfUSEd by the ESOO?  You’re not alone’.  A couple days later (26th Aug) Allan contributed further with ‘ESOO Unboxing’.

Stress levels started rising (and the claims and counter-claims abounded) leading into a stressful summer 2019-20 – as a result of which I wrote about ‘Probability, consequence (and risk) as it relates to summer 2019-20 in the NEM’ on 18th November.

A couple days later (21st Nov 2019) Allan wrote about ‘Summer reliability back in the headlines’.


Most would remember that summer 2019-20 was one of the more stressful ones, especially in relation to these four headline challenges.

Summer 2018-19
and the ESOO 2018

On 20th December 2018, Allan wrote about ‘NEM Summer Outlook 2018/19 – what is AEMO saying?’

Summer 2017-18
and the ESOO 2017

Responding to the release of the ESOO 2017, on 7th September 2017, Allan contributed ‘Decoding AEMO’s latest ESOO–will the lights stay on this summer?’.

In conjunction with this article, Allan contributed the useful article ‘What does “Unserved Energy” actually mean – a brief explainer’ to address some confusion about what USE means (and what it does not).

Then on 16th November, Allan contributed ‘What’s the market data saying about this Summer?’


There were a number of challenges encountered through summer 2017-18.

… with plenty of other articles speaking more generally about Reliability and ‘keeping the lights on’.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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