GenInsights Quarterly Updates (2023 Q1)

18 pages

1)   the 22 x Key Observations included in GenInsights21, and

2)  the 14 x Key Themes in the earlier GRC2018.

34 pages

In this appendix we take a look at a number of different ‘heartbeat’ metrics that help to identify the overall health of the NEM, including:

1)  Weather factors (like temperature)

2)  Prices

3)  System inertia

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With GVSC we’ve been analysing system inertia as far back as in the GRC2018, as highlighted with this article of August 2019.

More recently the AEMO has been publishing its own derivation … which allows us (in the Q4 2022 Update) to begin highlighting how the two different measures compare:
(a)  Our bottom-up estimate, showing contribution from different types of plant
(b)  The AEMO’s published regional aggregate.

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4)  Frequency Performance, which is topical given exploration by others, such as Allan O’Neil in February 2023.

5)  Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) … following from its inclusion in the Q3 update:

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With respect to the Q3 update, one small snippet of the content of that Update was shared with WattClarity readers on 6th November 2022 in the article ‘Long-range trend of Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) and focus on Q3 2022 – from GenInsights Quarterly’.

As discussed in Appendix 1 for the Q4 Update, what a different quarter this one was!

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… + others.

24 pages
(more detail than prior Quarterly Updates)

In this appendix we take a look at the changing nature of Grid Demand, which necessitates looking into:

1)  Different shapes of demand:

(a)  Starting with ‘Grid Demand’

(b)  But then also analysing Rooftop PV shapes to also assess ‘Underlying Demand’.

2)  Continuing from the Q4 Update, we’re also including analysis of the forecastability of ‘Operational Demand’

… this uses a method of ‘Forecast Convergence’ we introduced in GenInsights21 to assess the changing challenges of forecasting what ‘Operational Demand’ will be 24 hours from the point of dispatch.

70 pages

In this appendix we take a look at different aspects of the performance of Wind and Large Solar assets (separately and together), including:

1)  Production

2)  Commercial Performance

3)  Curtailment

(a)  On 24th June 2023 we shared ‘Increasing curtailment of Wind and Solar across the NEM’ based on results presented earlier in the Quarterly Update for Q1 2023.

4)  Self-Forecasting

(a)  The Q4 Update was topical, given AEMO upgraded its AWEFS and ASEFS forecasting systems on 23rd November 2022.

(b)  The Q1 Update was topical, given the end of the ‘Grace Period’ during the quarter, as discussed by Linton on 14th April in ‘Delving deeper into dispatch availability self-forecasting performance’.

5)  ‘Forecast Convergence‘ for aggregate VRE Capability

(a)  how accurate are the AEMO’s forecasts of Wind + Large Solar capability across the NEM, 24 hours from the point of dispatch?

(b)  given the growing installed capacity, with more Wind and Solar Farms being developed, to what extent is this challenge growing?

6)  Aggregate Raw Off-Target

(a)  In these Quarterly Updates, we continue to watch what’s happening in terms of collective deviation from Target across all the Wind and Solar Farms – updating and extending the analysis covered in WattClarity articles to 2020.

(b)  Following the Q4 Update, Paul wrote about ‘Some revelations in GenInsights Q4 2022 about Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Scheduled units’.

+ more to come.

31 pages

In this appendix we take a look at different aspects of the performance of (fully) Scheduled assets (at various levels of bundling), including:

1)  Performance specifically through Q4

2)  Aggregate Scheduled Target (AggSchedTarget):

(a)  In absolute terms

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With respect to the Q1 update, there are three snippets to be shared here on WattClarity:

i.  On 14th May 2023 we shared how ‘we’re not building enough replacement dispatchable capacity’

ii.  On Wed 31st May 2023, we shared ‘Digging further into ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’, to understand what Dispatchable Capacity is actually required’

iii.  A little later on, we’ll delve further into ‘Details to come’.

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(b)  Ramping from one Dispatch Interval to the next

3) ‘Forecast Convergence‘ for AggSchedTarget

34 pages

The 47 x coal units still operational in the NEM in Q1 2023 (albeit with 3 remaining units at Liddell now closed in Q2 2023) are a special subset of dispatchable plant that have been addressed in more detail in this particular Appendix – because:

1)  They still provide a large share of the Energy consumed in the NEM (and also the ‘Keeping the Lights on Services’);

2)  But suffer from the big drawback of high emissions intensity.

What this contains includes:

1)  Performance specifically through Q4

2)  Coal unit ‘dependability’

In the 180-page analytical component of the GRC2018 we included an extensive focus on the changing nature of different aspects of coal unit ‘dependability’.  This was extended and updated in GenInsights21.

Now, in each quarter, we’re extending and updating further, with the inclusion of analysis of:

(a)  Changing levels of Unavailability

(b)  Three different metrics that help to indicate the changing rate of ‘Sudden Failure’:

… number of Starts, number of ‘Sudden Trip’, and Aggregate Raw Off-Target.

(c)  New in these Quarterly Updates, we’re now also separating out all hours in the quarter for each of the remaining coal units into three categories (Operational, Planned Outage and Forced Outage), which makes it clearer which units appear to be  struggling and which units are not.

3)  We also look at ‘Forecast Convergence‘ for Aggregate Coal Unit Availability across the 47 units operational in this quarter.

4)  Each quarter we take an updated look at the Closure Schedule.

46 pages

(a major increase in analytical content)

In this Appendix, we look at:

1)  Regional Energy Balances

2)  Regional Transfer Duration Curves

3)  Specific interconnector operations (including, new to the Q1 update, the impact of various types of constraint)

4)  Renewable energy congestion

5)  Changing Marginal Loss Factors (MLFs)

… and in future Editions will add in other aspects.