Comparing spot revenue performance across wind farms
In a sneak preview of part of next Thursday’s Clean Energy Council webinar, Marcelle compares the spot revenue performance of wind farms across the NEM.
Semi-Scheduled Generation
Case Study of 15:40 on Monday 4th February 2019 (aggregate Raw Off-Target +308MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
This 16th Case Study in a series covers the first ‘extreme event’ into 2019 where there was an aggregate under-performance (compared to Target) across all Semi-Scheduled plant totaling greater than 300MW.
Diving deeper (part 2), about low demands on Saturday 29th August 2020
Prompted, in part, by yesterday’s record low for Victorian demand, today I have finished off my earlier review of what happened on Saturday 29th August (8 days earlier) when demand levels also dropped in VIC, and right across the NEM.
Exploring deeper (part 1), about minimum demand on Saturday 29th August 2020
Out of curiosity, and driven by questions received from several people, I’ve invested a bit of time today to delve further into the record low level of Scheduled Demand seen in the Victorian region (and perhaps also across the whole of the NEM) on Saturday 29th August 2020.
Case Study of 5 Events (between 11:00 to 15:00) on Wednesday 7th November 2018 … where aggregate Raw Off-Target was above 300MW for Semi-Scheduled units
This 15th Case Study is longer than the earlier 14 as it deals with 4 discrete instances of extreme level of collective under-performance, and 1 instance of over-performance, all within a 4-hour timeframe on the same day. A day which appears to have had widespread weather activity affecting the output of BOTH Wind and Solar across 3 Regions. A challenging day!
Case Study of 03:45 on Monday 15th October 2018 (aggregate Raw Off-Target +308MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
This is the 13th Case Study in this series (looking at each of 98 extreme incidents). We’re looking at an event on 15th October 2018 that seems to heavily feature high-wind cut-out as the primary driver for collective wind farm under-performance.
Case Study of 16:05 on Wednesday 19th December 2018 (aggregate Raw Off-Target +309MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
This is the 13th Case Study in this series (looking at each of 98 extreme incidents). Note I have skipped 2 events earlier in 2018 and will come back to publish case studies of them – this one covers the last event in 2018.
Case Study of 16:05 on Friday 28th September 2018 (aggregate Raw Off-Target–333MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
This is the 12th Case Study in this series (looking at each of 98 extreme incidents). This one is simpler than the 11th Case Study!
Case Study of 02:35 on Saturday 15th September 2018 (aggregate Raw Off-Target +355MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
This is the 11th Case Study in a series (looking at extreme outcomes of Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Sched units). We’ve rolled into 2018, now and (coincidence?) this one is much more complex than the first 10 from the earlier years …
Case Study of 19:25 on Thursday 5th October 2017 (aggregate Raw Off-Target +305MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
This 9th case study in this series advances us into October 2017, where we see another example of an extreme outcome for collective under-performance. Most notably this happens across 5 Wind Farms (with one unit completely tripping).
Case Study of 13:10 on Thursday 23rd June 2016 (aggregate Raw Off-Target +320MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
This 7th case study in a series takes a look at 1 of 3 dispatch intervals during 2016 that saw extreme under-performance (in aggregate) across all Semi-Scheduled plant.
Case Study of 04:30 on Thursday 8th January 2015 (aggregate Raw Off-Target -314MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
This 6th case study in a series takes a look at only 1 of 5 Dispatch Intervals featuring over-performance in a total of 98 that saw extreme Aggregate Raw Off-Target performance across all Semi-Scheduled plant (rare over-performance and more common under-performance).
Case Study of 12:35 on Wednesday 14th August 2013 (aggregate Raw Off-Target +391MW for Semi-Scheduled units)
Like was the case on 4th July 2013, the cause of this large Aggregate Raw Off-Target result (across all Semi-Scheduled Generators) was a single unit trip.
Case Study of 14:55 on Thursday 4th July 2013 (>300MW Aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled Units)
Does not take long to see why this particular dispatch interval was one of the few dispatch intervals (before 2019!) flagged in our top-down analysis of aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled units in the NEM….
Extrapolating from the trend of ‘Aggregated Raw Off-Target’ results, to yield some clues to what the future might hold … and one challenge for NEM 2.0
Following on from Friday’s article (which considered the AER Issues Paper) this article delves into more detail of those extremes of ‘Aggregate Raw Off-Target’ across all Semi-Scheduled units that have been recorded over the past 10 years. There’s a clear clustering of cases in 2019 – what does it mean?
Striving to understand the underlying challenges with Semi-Scheduled generators (re AER Issues Paper)
Prompted by the recent AER Issues Paper (submissions on that due today – Friday 24th July) but also aware that I’ve not yet published some broader thoughts in response to the ESB’s requests for input into their Discussion Paper on the Two Sided Market concept, I’ve posted some further thoughts. These have been informed by a longitudinal analysis of Aggregate ‘Raw Off-target’ values across all Semi-Scheduled plant.
Semi-scheduled generation–what are the real issues?
Marcelle digs into the data to find out what the real issues are in the AER’s proposed rule change for semi-scheduled generators.
‘Too Low for Zero’ as a parable for the AER Issues Paper?
Here’s an attempt to translate the concern underlying the AER Issues Paper into ‘plain English’ via the popular song.
AER releases Issues Paper on proposed rule change(s) for Semi-Scheduled generators
It’s not a surprise to me to see that someone (the AER in this case) has released an Issues Paper canvassing options for changing the way Semi-Scheduled generators interact with the dispatch process. Not a surprise, as our prior analysis suggests the current approach is not sustainable or scalable.
AER to develop two Rule Change proposals about Semi-Scheduled generation
A brief note about the (also short) notice from the AER relating to two rule change proposals which it has been asked to propose by the COAG Energy Council