Wind output drops and volatility rises
After spending a day looking into the future (at prospective generation developments) I noted this reverse correlation between wind and volatility that’s been occurring over the week.
price volatility
How prices will be set, under the new “Demand Response Mechanism”
Some worked examples of how several forms of Demand Response (including the proposed new Demand Response Mechanism) might impact wholesale prices, and participant positions.
No, these were not spurious price spikes in Queensland today
Some quick observations about the patterns of volatility seen this week in Queensland
Summer’s not done yet – prices spike in humid Queensland
Hot and sticky weather in QLD drives demand higher and provides an opportunity for spot price volatility
Queensland demand tops 8,300MW – but NEM-wide it fizzles
High temperatures and humidity on Monday 6th January deliver more price volatility, and high demand in Queensland.
Even Colongra gets a run as high temperatures stretch local supplies in NSW
High temperatures passing through NSW provided the opportunity for the Colongra gas-fired power station to shake off the cobwebs and have a run for the day.
The first working day of summer sees volatility return in Victoria and South Australia
A snapshot from NEM-Watch capturing the first volatility seen this summer
Is solar PV providing more opportunity for spot price engineering?
Some initial analysis looking into the question of whether the increased penetration of solar PV is increasing the variability of scheduled demand to the point that generators can exert more pressure on spot prices.
Price volatility returns to the Queensland region
A quick look at some more volatility experienced in the Queensland region on Wednesday 23rd October
Two evening price spikes send jitters …
The dispatch price in Queensland spiked to $1,500/MWh at 18:25 and again at 22:40 yesterday evening – triggering jitters in some who fear a return to the volatility of summer 2013.
Updated animation of 20th December 2012 – a volatile day in the Queensland Region
An updated animation of 20th December 2012 focused on the Queensland region – a volatile day for that region.
Animation of several hours over the evening of Saturday 12th January 2013 in Queensland
Here’s another animated case study of one more interesting time that occurred through summer 2013 in Queensland – on this occasion the evening of Saturday 12th January 2013.
Wild price gyrations in Victoria (and elsewhere) today following a station trip at Yallourn
An animation of 90 minutes this morning where the price gyrated wildly in response to a trip at Yallourn, and numerous subsequent reactions by market participants and the AEMO.
SA summary for Thursday, compared to the preceding week
Following from a period of elevated prices in South Australia, prices dropped on Thursday. Here’s some reasons why…
7-day South Australian overview (Thu 30 May to Wed 5 June)
Spot Prices in South Australia were elevated over the past 7 days – here are some reasons why.
Prices yo-yo in SA this morning, as installed capacity goes missing
Following yesterday’s warnings about the potential for a tight supply/demand balance in South Australia this week, it was not really a surprise when the SMS alerts from NEM-Watch began buzzing for the 07:20 dispatch interval this morning (NEM time), highlighting that the dispatch price in SA had jumped to $12,199.20/MWh. This has continued through the morning.
Why are we completing this extensive review of what happened over a very volatile summer in QLD – and why, and what the future implications might be?
Why are we investing significant time in completing this review of what was remarkable price volatility in QLD over summer? We’re primarily a software company that develops shrink-wrapped products used by about 100 market participants, spectators and commentators.
Recapping NEM-wide demand for summer 2012-13
A view of how NEM-wide demand trended over summer, with respect to our Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM competition.
Some factors that contributed to the remarkable volatility in Queensland over the weekend
A starting list of a number of factors that combined to deliver sustained higher wholesale electricity prices in the Queensland region across the weekend of Saturday 12th January and Sunday 13th January 2013.
Queensland’s turn to sweat today, but NEM-wide demand plummets
A snapshot of a day of contrast – with high demand in Queensland (temperature driven) and extraordinarily low demand in the south.