The forecast LOR2 for NSW on Thursday 29th February 2024 grows more extreme…
AEMO updated forecasts for LOR2 in NSW (and now QLD) for Thursday 29th Feb 2024 are now more severe than the earlier forecasts.
NSW
Stubborn forecasts for LOR2 (low reserve condition) for NSW for Thursday evening 29th February 2024
A Tuesday morning article, looking ahead to forecasts of LOR2 (tight supply-demand balance) for NSW on Thursday evening 29th February 2024
Volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday 26th February 2024
A short record of evening volatility in Queensland and NSW on Monday 26th February 2024.
Thursday 29th February 2024 could be a (relatively) high demand day in NSW
A quick look forward (from Sun 25th Feb) towards Thursday 29th Feb 2024 in NSW
Demand climbing in NSW and QLD on Friday afternoon 23rd February 2024
Demand is climbing in both NSW and QLD regions on Friday afternoon 23rd February, off the back of hot weather.
System Strength considerations for NSW via Market Notices … a low point reached in 2023 Q4
AEMO points to the TransGrid document from Wed 14th Feb 2024 'NSW Synchronous Generation - interim advice for System Normal requirement'.
Brief recap of NSW on Monday 5th February 2024
A brief review of what unfolded in NSW on Monday evening 5th February 2024.
Expectations for high demand in NSW this (hot) evening – Monday 5th February 2024
A short early-afternoon article about expectations for NSW on Monday 5th February 2024.
Forecast NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ at ~32,250MW on Sunday 4th February 2024
A second article looking ahead to (forecasts about) Sunday 4th February 2024 ... where NEM-wide demand might reach the highest point in summer 2023-24 to date.
Evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Sunday 28th January 2024
A short record of a burst of volatility in QLD and NSW on Sunday evening 28th January 2024.
AEMO’s forecasts for higher ‘Market Demand’ in NSW on Thursday evening 25th January 2024 don’t materialise
A quick look-back on the what was forecast, and what actually happened, for 'Market Demand' in NSW on Thursday 25th Jan 2024.
AEMO forecasts deep LOR2 in NSW on Thursday 25th January 2024
Whilst still recovering from Mon 22nd Jan 2024, this article takes a first look towards Thu 25th Jan 2024 (which could be a big one in NSW).
Recapping the accelerating decline in ‘Minimum Demand’ levels across the NEM, at the end of 2023
A tabular summary of how 'declining demand' has been an accelerating theme in most regions of the NEM (and NEM-wide) through 2023.
AEMO forecast for LOR2 in NSW on Tuesday 19th December 2023
A short initial note about AEMO's currently forecast LOR2 for NSW next Tuesday 19th December 2023.
Belated notice from the AEMO about RERT contracted for yesterday (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
It's Friday morning and AEMO has just published a Market Notice to alert the market that RERT was contracted for yesterday evening in NSW (Thu 14th Dec 2023).
Wind production ramps down in NSW, coincident with Increased Demand (and then Actual LOR2)
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in 'Market Demand'.
Actual LOR2 in NSW from 17:30 on Thursday 14th December 2023
'Market Demand' has ramped back up, leading to an 'Actual LOR2' low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
NSW ‘Market Demand’ climbs past 13,000MW – and IRPM drops – but prices stay moderate
NSW 'Market Demand' exceeds 13,000MW for the first time today (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
NSW ‘Market Demand’ squeezes 12,500MW as price passes $500/MWh
Getting closer to the time of forecast peak in demand, the forecast LOR2 is revised downwards.
RERT negotiations underway in NSW … at the same time as the NSW spot price is negative and forecast spikes have disappeared
A strange coincidence with the AEMO 'intending to commence' negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW - for this afternoon/evening.