Following my presentation at NEMdev 2025 (on 8th Oct 2025), here are some suggestions that the Nelson Review panel might consider - with respect to forecasting.
Recent debate has centred on the CIS’s success so far. In part one of this four-part series, we look at how projects have progressed since being awarded a contract.
About 4 weeks ago the 2025 ESOO was released. In this article we highlight 3 x 2 different ways this might be viewed - and note some other dimensions not considered.
On Thursday 21st August 2025 (a week earlier than I'd anticipated) the AEMO has released its 2025 ESOO.
Transmission Company Victoria (TCV) yesterday announced a two-year delay to the project delivery timeline for the VNI West project.
In this article we explore the 2024 ESOO, and linked documents, in terms of what's assumed for coal unit EFOR - and why, in the light of recent improvements in coal unit performance (compared...
After an initial skim through the 2024 ESOO, here's (the start of) a collation of thoughts that it triggers.
On Thursday 29th August 2024 the AEMO released the 2024 ESOO (Electricity Statement of Opportunities) for the NEM. Here's where to get it, and also links to relevant news media articles that we've seen.
After skimming through the last twenty editions of the ESOO over the past couple of days, Dan shares some thoughts about what has and hasn't changed over the years.
Part 2 of this analysis into the latest update of the ESOO, its modelling, and the project development pipeline.
A compiled list of development projects delayed or leaving the market in between the ESOO2023 and its update released two weeks ago. Along with some analysis of longer term trends with the development pipeline.
Following today's publication of the AEMO has also called for ‘Interim Reliability Reserves’ for summer 2024-25.
It's Tuesday 21st May 2024 and the AEMO has published an update to the 2023 ESOO ... about 8 months since the publication of the prior release, and 4 months before the 2024 ESOO....
The methodology used to assess performance of AEMO's longer-term forecasts is under review via the consultation process.
In his second article about the 2023 ESOO, guest author Allan O'Neil takes a look at what the AEMO has published with respect to various options for firming capacity to increase the reliability of...
Last Thursday (31st Aug 2023) the AEMO published the ESOO 2023, including forecasts of some possibility of unserved energy in Victoria and South Australia this coming summer 2023-24 (above the Interim Reliability Measure). Guest...
The 2023 ESOO contains some some reporting (and data) about one particular contingency plan ... delaying retirement of existing thermal generators (with Eraring a case in point).
Apart from a distraction early this morning, I've invested some hours today in review of the 2023 ESOO. Here's 7 initial observations that jumped out at me.
Here's my view on whether Figure 2 should have preceded Figure 1 (with respect to projections of unserved energy ... USE) in the 2023 ESOO.
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that EFOR (equivalent forced outage rate) for coal and large gas units is a large and growing challenge.