2024 Consultation on Forecasting Accuracy Report Methodology

AEMO is consulting on the methodology for its Forecasting Accuracy Report

This is the one used for the assessment of AEMO’s longer-term electricity demand and supply forecasts.

The forecasts are used in many reliability and planning processes, including:

• Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MT PASA),
• The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) and the associated reliability forecast used for the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO), and
• The Integrated System Plan (ISP).

Consultation on Forecasting Accuracy Report Methodology.  Click to AEMO webpage.

This twitter (X) post alerted us to the current status of the consultation following record demand in QLD, lack of reserve projections in some regions and even a projected possibility of load shedding requiring the use of the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader “RERT” to be raised. 

Forecasting Assessment Methodology Tweet   

Submissions to the first stage close on the 5th of February 2024

Consultation Timeline

Plenty to review

For this consultation AEMO engaged the University of Adelaide to review the methodology. There were twenty-six (26) recommendations in the review.

The consultation paper therefore includes discussion on the recommendations, forming a starting point for the consultation.

Key upcoming dates for submissions are

• First stage submissions closed

(Monday) 5 February 2024

• Draft Determination & Notice of second stage consultation published

4 March 2024

• Submissions due on Draft Determination

(Monday) 8 April 2024

• Final Determination published

20 May 2024

Get your submissions in!

The AER’s forecasting best practice guidelines require AEMO to consult on this methodology at least once every 4 years. This means the next opportunity for material revisions might not be until 2028. The last consultation was in 2020.